Create core competitiveness and lead the field of photovoltaic silicon wafers. As a leading enterprise in the field of photovoltaic silicon wafers, the company actively carries out independent product development and technological innovation, and has the largest share of the silicon wafer market in the world. According to the company's 2023 performance forecast, for the full year of '23, the company achieved net profit of 42-4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.6%-38.4%, and realized deducted non-net profit of 31-3.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.47%-52.18%.
Prices in the industrial chain fluctuated, and profits showed a downward trend. In 2023, the photovoltaic industry declined as a whole. The price of silicon wafers fell to an irrational range in the fourth quarter, and module prices fell from 2 yuan/W at the beginning of the year to 0.9 yuan/W at the end of the year. In addition, the production capacity of all links in the industrial chain has expanded dramatically, and the industry has experienced phenomena such as overcapacity, intense competition, and oversupply. As a result, prices in the photovoltaic industry chain fluctuated and declined. The company's profits were under pressure, and profits in the fourth quarter were damaged.
Adhere to the strategy of differentiation and strengthen the overall layout of domestic and foreign production capacity. Through flexible manufacturing capabilities and strengthening Total Solution capabilities, the company forms IPD linkages with N-type TopCon and HJT customers, advocating participation in customer product and process design to meet the differentiated needs of different customers. Domestic layout: The company expects to start producing 25GW TopCon batteries in Guangzhou in 24 to further improve the domestic production capacity layout. Overseas layout: The company cooperated with Vision Industries Company to actively build a crystal chip project in Saudi Arabia. The first phase of the design production capacity is estimated to be 20 GW; participating company Maxeon holds IBC battery and tile stack module patents and plans to start producing 3GW of TopCon battery module production capacity in the US, deepening the company's strategy of global industrial layout.
Maintain development competitiveness and continue technological innovation in various products. The company adheres to its own development direction and strategic goals, continuously transforms Industry 4.0 manufacturing methods and strengthens endogenous competitive advantages. Crystals: The company optimizes the material structure and reduces the consumption rate of silicon in products. Chips: The company further improved the process technology for thinning and thinning wafers to increase the number of wafers produced. Batteries and components: Focus on independent technological innovation and process accumulation, firmly establish the “stacking+G12” dual-platform differentiation technology and product route, and have achieved a comprehensive iteration of the “G12+ tiled” 3.0 product. At the same time, by leveraging the collaborative advantages of the industrial chain, the company continued to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and expanded its core differentiated competitiveness.
Investment advice: We expect the company to achieve revenue of 680.13/605.76/71,688 billion yuan in 2023-2025, net profit to mother of 4.523/30.07/4.519 billion yuan respectively, EPS 1.12/0.74/1.12 yuan, and PE 11/17/11 times, giving it a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: risk of competition within the industry; risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; risk of global macroeconomic fluctuations.