需求疲软成本上行，23 年业绩承压下滑：2023 年公司功能性产品营业收入88.1 亿元，同比-15%，特种产品营业收入35.9 亿元，同比+8%；其中，23Q4 功能性产品营业收入24.1 亿元，环比+8%，特种产品营业收入9.7 亿元，环比+10%。公司主营产品毛利下滑，功能性产品与特种产品23 年毛利分别为11.6 亿元、15.3 亿元，同比-52%、-2%。因功能性产品价格大幅下跌叠加原材料、能源成本上升的双重挤压，23 年业绩承压下滑。其中23Q4 功能性产品与特种产品毛利分别为5.3 亿元、4.8 亿元，同比+231%、+37%。Q4 单季度表现来看，随着蛋氨酸景气度持续回暖，公司盈利能力显著改善，销售收入环比+8.5%，毛利环比+71%。Incidents:
The company announced a pre-reduction in its 2023 results. In 2023, the company expects to achieve net profit of 52 million yuan, or -96% year on year, and net profit after deduction of 34 million yuan, or -97% year on year; of these, Q4 is expected to achieve net profit of 86 million yuan, -17% year over year, and +154 million yuan month-on-month.
Comment:
Demand was weak, costs rose, and the 23-year performance declined: in 2023, the company's functional product revenue was 8.81 billion yuan, -15% year over year, and specialty products revenue was 3.59 billion yuan, +8% year over year; among them, 23Q4 functional products revenue was 2.41 billion yuan, +8% month-on-month, and specialty products revenue was 970 million yuan, +10% month-on-month. The gross profit of the company's main products declined. The gross profit of functional products and specialty products in 23 was 1.16 billion yuan and 1.53 billion yuan respectively, or -52% compared with the same period last year. Due to a sharp drop in the price of functional products combined with the double squeeze of rising raw materials and energy costs, the 23-year performance declined under pressure. Among them, the gross profit of 23Q4 functional products and specialty products was 530 million yuan and 480 million yuan respectively, +231% and +37% compared with the same period last year. Looking at Q4's single-quarter performance, as the methionine boom continued to pick up, the company's profitability improved significantly, sales revenue +8.5% month-on-month, and gross profit +71% month-on-month.
The pattern of methionine supply and demand improved, and the rebound at the bottom of the price led to improved performance: the average domestic price of methionine in Q4 in 2023 was 21.4 yuan/kg, +3% year-on-year and +19% month-on-month. Production cuts in overseas factories drove up methionine prices. 2023Q2, Q3, and Seagate transformed the methionine production line at its Malaysian plant by reducing capacity utilization, releasing about 40% of methionine production capacity to convert production to valine and isoleucine. Evonik announced that it will reduce the capacity utilization rate of its Singapore plant in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 and implement a 40,000 ton capacity expansion project. With the temporary closure of existing production capacity and delays in new production capacity, the supply of methionine will be significantly tightened. Furthermore, the demand for methionine in the Asian region is growing rapidly due to the growing population, the continuous development of modern livestock and poultry farming, and changes in the diet structure of developing countries. Among them, China has become the world's largest consumer of methionine and has great potential for demand. Due to the impact of production cuts at the overseas Seagate plant in Malaysia and Yingchang Singapore, combined with the continued recovery in downstream demand, methionine prices rebounded to the bottom, providing support for the company's performance growth.
Investing in the Quanzhou methionine project, methionine production capacity is expanding steadily: the company plans to invest in the construction of a 150,000 tons/year solid methionine project, with an estimated total investment of about 4.9 billion yuan. The project construction period is about 26 months. The project is expected to be put into operation in 2027, and the payback period is 9 years. The project will make full use of the integrated synergy with Sinochem to save capital and operating expenses, further expand methionine production capacity, consolidate the company's leading position in the methionine industry, and optimize the company's methionine product structure and domestic and foreign production capacity layout. Through continuous industrial investment and expansion of production capacity, the company's European production platform has continuously implemented multiple capacity expansion projects. Since Q3 2021, the European project has increased additional production capacity by 80,000 tons/year. The second phase of the Nanjing plant was put into operation in Q3 2022, and the total production capacity of the Nanjing production platform reached 350,000 tons of liquid methionine. The new production capacity forms a strong synergy effect and scale advantage with the existing plant. The company's competitive cost advantage will continue to be strengthened, and the company's performance is expected to further increase at that time.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Methionine and vitamin prices have fallen to historic lows, and the company's profitability has declined, so we lowered the company's profit forecast for 2023-2025. The company's net profit for 2023-2025 is expected to be 0.52 (87% reduction)/8.33 (35% reduction)/10.92 billion yuan (24% reduction) billion yuan respectively, equivalent to EPS of 0.02/0.31/0.41 yuan, respectively. The company's methionine production capacity expansion progressed steadily, specialty products bucked the trend, and the two pillars helped the company develop, thus maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand in the aquaculture industry weakens; methionine production capacity investment progress falls short of expectations; raw material prices fluctuate.
