Event: The company released its 2023 annual results forecast. Net profit due to mother is estimated to be RMB 188-230 million in 2023, about +10%-35% year-on-year; net profit without return to mother is estimated to be RMB 178-217 million, +15%-40% year-on-year.
The product continues to be iteratively upgraded, and the company's overall profitability is expected to be steady and improving. The company's EMS 3.0 adapts to the requirements of future new power systems. On the basis of EMS 2.0, it further coordinates the optimal operation of distributed energy, controllable load, energy storage and other subsystems through control strategies such as cutting peaks and filling valleys, demand management, and orderly use of electricity, etc., to increase the consumption ratio of new energy sources and reduce electricity costs. In addition, EMS 3.0 can also interact with state grid scheduling systems, electricity trading platforms, and virtual power plant aggregator platforms. After connecting to EMS 3.0 in the future, the company's profitability is expected to increase further.
Sales model transformation to accelerate 2.0 promotion efficiency. In order to accelerate the promotion of EMS 2.0, the company sank some R&D personnel into the market, thoroughly understood customer pain points and proposed professional solutions, which not only helped the sales team promote but also accumulate industry experience, summarize problems, and optimize the system; the sales team assessment indicators were more refined, and more attention was paid to project quality and conversion rate. The model led by industry managers and product managers in leading sales has been implemented and achieved certain results. Faced with the lengthening domestic investment cycle, etc., the company has actively taken steps to break the ice. The main ones are 1) focusing on booming industries, entering from the source and expanding the project pool; 2) keeping up with existing registered projects to increase the project conversion rate.
Develop overseas markets in an orderly manner, and overseas business development is optimistic. In 2023, the company stepped up its efforts to develop overseas markets, mainly in Southeast Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, etc., and trained a business team centered on Singapore to radiate the Southeast Asian market. The company has mainly carried out many tasks such as participating in overseas exhibitions, visiting customers, and developing local agents. Overseas business development is optimistic.
Investment advice: We expect the company's net profit to be 215/2.74 billion yuan in 23-25, +26.27%/27.04%/32.31% year-on-year, corresponding EPS of 1.00/1.27/1.69 yuan, respectively, to maintain the “gain” rating.
Risk warning: Product promotion is not as fast as expected risk, and competitors increase risk