① Pien Tsai's 2023 performance increased by 12.59%. The increase fell short of expectations. The stock price came close to falling to a standstill. At noon, the company issued a high performance forecast announcement for the first quarter. ② Last year, the price of Pien Tsai Tsai, the main single product of Pien Tsai, increased sharply. Industry analysts said that the market expects Pien Tsai to increase its performance by around 25%.
Financial Services Association, January 31 (Reporter Zhang Liangde) Pien Tsai (600436.SH) announced the performance forecast last night. Although revenue and profit continued to grow in double digits, the market did not seem to buy it. The stock price of the company that opened today came close to a standstill. Or in order to boost investor confidence, the company issued a first-quarter results forecast announcement at noon, indicating that net profit for the first quarter increased by no less than 25% year on year, but this did not reverse the stock price performance. By the close, the company's stock price had fallen by more than 9%.
A brokerage industry analyst told the Financial Federation reporter that the market expects Pien Tsai Yao's performance to grow by around 25%, and today's stock price may have fallen because the growth rate is lower than expected.
The company expects to achieve total operating revenue of 10.035 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 15.42% year on year, and net profit to mother of 2,784 billion yuan, an increase of 12.59% year on year.
Xu Qinghua, a pharmaceutical industry researcher at the Ming Shi Partnership Fund, told the Financial Federation reporter: “The company's performance forecast shows a lot of marginal decline. Looking at a single quarter, the 2023Q4 revenue is expected to be 2,435 million yuan, up 17% year on year, net profit to mother of 379 million yuan, down 10% year on year, after deducting non-net profit of 404 million yuan, down 2.5% year on year. Profit growth fell short of market expectations.”
Xu Qinghua believes that the GDP shift may have an impact on consumption of high-end optional consumer goods. Last year, the price of Pien Tsai, the main single product of Pien Tsai, increased sharply, but the growth rate of performance was not high, and the market speculated that sales of the product may have fallen short of expectations.
Judging from recent brokers' research reports, institutions said that considering the company's product strength and the scarcity of Pien Tsai, they mostly gave Pien Tsai Ye a “buy” rating. Broker firms such as Wanlian, Huaan, Southwest, and Cinda expect the 2023 performance to exceed 3 billion yuan, and the performance growth rate is expected to be above 20%. However, after the disclosure of this performance forecast, the company's fourth quarter performance growth “stalled”, falling short of market expectations, which had a certain impact on the company's stock price.
In response to the sudden decline in the market trend, Pien Tsai also made a quick response. At noon today, the company announced its performance forecast for the first quarter. The announcement stated that during the beginning of 2024, the company's product sales momentum improved, the market showed a strong sales trend, and achieved a “good start”. The company expects that in the first quarter of this year, the company's net profit to mother will increase by no less than 25% year on year.
The company's performance this year is still under pressure in terms of raw material costs. Due to the increase in market demand for Angu gyuhuang pills, Nishihuang pills, Seishin pills, etc., the current price of natural beef yolk has exceeded 1.8 million yuan/kg, which is 200,000 to 300,000 yuan/kg higher than when the price of the company's products was raised last year.
It is worth noting that recently, the stock prices of a number of listed traditional Chinese medicine companies have fluctuated greatly due to changes in performance forecasts.
Among them, Tong Ren Tang (600085.SH) also fell in stock prices due to performance growth falling short of expectations, while Donga Ejiao (000423.SZ) and Guang Yuyuan (600771.SH), whose growth rate exceeded expectations, saw a sharp rise in the company's stock price after the performance forecast was revealed.
Xu Qinghua said that the agency will refer to the company's PEG situation. Some companies are already at a high level of 2-3 times. The growth rate is indeed the main thing, but it also depends on the market environment. When market liquidity is good, it will also be higher.