The company released its 2023 performance forecast: It is expected to achieve net profit of 50,000-550 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 274.06% - 311.47% year-on-year, and is expected to achieve net profit without deduction of 38-430 million yuan, an increase of 698.56% - 777.31% year-on-year.
The median performance slightly exceeded expectations, and there was a marked improvement in 23Q4 compared to the previous quarter. The estimated median net profit range for 2023 is $525 million, slightly higher than our previous forecast of 501 million yuan. It is estimated that 23Q4 will achieve net profit of 155-205 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 360.7%-509.6%, a month-on-month increase of 17.3%-55.2%, and realized deducted non-net profit of 312-362 million yuan, turning a year-on-year loss into a profit. The same period in 2022 was -017 million yuan, an increase of 439.8% -526.4% month-on-month.
Copper-based materials: Production capacity of more than 1 million tons is planned at the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the product structure is high-end.
The company's copper-based materials plan to form a production capacity of more than 1 million tons by the end of the 14th 5th year, including more than 400,000 tons of precision copper strips, 500,000 tons of copper conductor materials, and 100,000 tons of copper alloy wire, and accelerate the construction of projects such as “50,000 tons of high-precision copper alloy strips and foils per year” to help expand products to high-precision fields.
Tianniao Hi-Tech: Jiangsu Tianniao's performance is stable, Wuhu Tianniao's production capacity is climbing, and carbon ceramic brake discs are expected to become a new growth point.
Jiangsu Tianniao currently has sufficient orders and stable performance. The first and second phases of the fund-raising project have already been completed. The first phase of the Wuhu Tianniao project was completed and put into operation at the end of 2022. Production capacity was climbing in the first three quarters of 2023. 23H1 achieved revenue of 10.23 million yuan, and the production and sales volume of thermal field composites is expected to be over 600 tons in 2023; samples of carbon ceramic brake discs have been delivered, and products are planned to be produced in 2023.
Dingli Technology: With the completion and commissioning of the tantalum carbide project, the business scale and performance increased rapidly; it was listed on the New Third Board at the end of 2023.
Dingli Technology's new materials business mainly covers two categories: high-purity graphite/carbon materials and metal-based 3D printing materials and products. In terms of high-purity graphite/carbon materials, the tantalum carbide industrialization project has been completed and put into operation, high-purity toner has been produced in small batches; in terms of metal-based 3D printing materials and products, 3D printing structural parts have already been delivered in batches. 23H1 achieved operating income of 240 million yuan, +45.0% year over year, and realized net profit of 41.86 million yuan, +114.9% year over year. On December 20, 2023, Dingli Technology was officially listed on the New Third Board. The company held 66.72% of Dingli Technology's shares.
Maintain a “Highly Recommended” investment rating. The estimated net profit for 2023-25 is 5.2/7.3/1.03 billion yuan, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 17/12/9 times, maintaining a “highly recommended” investment rating.
Risk warning: raw material prices fluctuate greatly, the progress of production projects falls short of expectations, downstream demand falls short of expectations, etc.