产品结构持续优化，海外业务占比有望进一步提升2023 年公司Q1/Q2/Q3 单季度归母净利润同比分别+12.77%/+72.13%/+19.39%，Q4 单季度归母净利润同比增长900.00%-3025.00%，Q4 业绩增长大幅提速。分产品来看，三片罐：公司三片罐业务对外积极提升市场份额，对内加强内部控制，强化成本费用管控，产品利润率有所提升；两片罐：公司两片罐业务持续推进现有工厂技改及新产能建设，公司新建项目雅安工厂已开始试生产，通过贴近式服务战略客户，满足客户多样化需求，综合竞争力有所提升；铝瓶：Incidents:
The company announced a forecast increase in annual results for 2023:
In 2023, the company achieved net profit of 315-400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.72%-91.39%, and achieved net profit of 3.00-380 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.75%-109.94%; of these, Q4 realized net profit to mother of 0.40-125 million yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 900.00%-3025.00% year-on-year, and achieved net profit without return to mother of 0.29-109 million yuan, an increase of 107.14%-678.57% year-on-year. Q4 Achieved a high increase in performance.
The product structure continues to be optimized, and the share of overseas business is expected to further increase the company's Q1/Q2/Q3 net profit by +12.77%/+72.13%/+19.39% year on year in Q4, net profit to mother increased 900.00%-3025.00% year on year, and Q4 performance growth accelerated significantly. By product, three-piece cans: the company's three-piece can business actively increased market share externally, strengthened internal control, strengthened cost and expense control, and increased product profit margins; two-piece cans: The company's two-piece can business continues to promote technical reform and new production capacity construction in existing plants, and the company's new construction project, the Ya'an factory, has begun trial production. Through close service to strategic customers, it meets the diverse needs of customers, and its overall competitiveness has improved; aluminum bottles:
It is expected that the company's aluminum bottle business will maintain a steady growth trend. The company will continue to increase R&D and production of new products and new can types, in line with the trend of upgrading the downstream beer consumer market structure.
Furthermore, while strengthening cooperative relationships with original customers, the company is actively developing new overseas customers. It is expected that overseas business will maintain a rapid growth trend. As the share of high-margin overseas business further increases, the company's profitability is expected to increase dramatically.
Profitability continued to improve, and Q4 performance achieved high growth
In 2023, the company's Q1/Q2/Q3 net sales interest rate for the single quarter was 3.43%/5.66%/6.53%, respectively. Profitability is expected to increase further in Q4. On the one hand, Q4's performance base was low last year due to asset, credit impairment losses and investment losses; on the other hand, the company's profitability continued to improve through product and channel structure optimization to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
Investment advice:
We believe that the company has sufficient growth drivers in the metal packaging industry, and future development can be expected. The company's net profit for 2023-2025 is 3.20/4.04/489 million yuan, respectively, +52.90%/+26.20%/+21.03% year-on-year, corresponding to PE 15/12/10 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning:
The lawsuit between Tencel Red Bull and Reignwood Red Bull fell short of expectations; the risk of a sharp rise in the prices of major raw materials, etc.
