Core views
The company announced its 2023 performance forecast. It is expected that the annual revenue will be 710-76 billion yuan, up 76-89% year on year; net profit to mother will be 93-10.3 billion, up 159-187% year on year; net profit after deduction will be 91.5 to 10.15 billion yuan, up 170 to 200% year on year. The company's revenue and profit exceeded expectations. The main judgment was that the global new energy market maintained rapid growth, the company's leading position in the market was further enhanced, and the decline in shipping costs and the increase in exchange rates contributed to some of the performance increases. As a leader in inverters, the company continues to maintain a strong brand and technical advantage, and is expected to continue to maintain a high share and profitability.
occurrences
The company announced its 2023 performance forecast: annual revenue is expected to be 710-76 billion yuan, up 76-89% year on year; net profit to mother is 93-10.3 billion, up 159-187% year on year; net profit after deduction is 91.5 to 10.15 billion yuan, up 170 to 200% year on year.
Looking at Q4 alone, estimated revenue is 246 to 29.6 billion yuan, +36~ 64% year on year, +38~ 66% month on month; net profit to mother of 2.08 billion, +35 ~ 101% year on year, -28 ~ +7% month on month; net profit after deducting net profit of 20.8 to 3.08 billion yuan, +40 ~ 107% year on year, and -26~ +10% month-on-month. The net interest rate for the whole year was 13.6~ 16.1%, and the net interest rate for single Q4 was 8.5~ 10.4%.
Brief review
1. The revenue and profit of Q4 alone exceeded expectations. It was determined that Q4 was mainly due to domestic PV installation volume and high EPC business revenue. Looking at the whole year, 1) the global new energy market continued to grow rapidly; 2) The company continued to increase R&D and innovation, continue to advance comprehensive market and product coverage strategies, give full play to the advantages of the global marketing service network, continue to expand its brand influence, further enhance its market leadership position, and increase revenue from core products such as photovoltaic inverters and energy storage systems; 3) In other areas, the company's 23-year performance also benefited from improved lean operation capabilities, reduced shipping costs, and increased exchange revenue.
2. Looking ahead to 2024, we judge that the optical storage industry will continue to grow rapidly, the company's market position will continue to consolidate, and it is expected to surpass the industry's growth rate.
3. In addition, the company previously issued a draft equity incentive for 2023, and the net profit target for 2024-2027 is over 79, 86, 93, and 10.1 billion yuan. Part of the reason the market's lack of confidence in the company is that one-time performance such as exchange cannot be calculated. The current equity incentive draft has basically determined the lower performance limit, and the long-term growth of performance is highly certain.
Profit prediction and suggestions: The company's leading position continues to be stable, and its brand and product advantages keep the company in the first tier of profit; with the rapid growth of the domestic and foreign optical storage industry, performance is expected to achieve a higher growth rate. We expect the company's net profit to be 98, 104, and 11.3 billion yuan respectively in 23-25, corresponding PE of 12.1, 11.4, and 10.5x.
Risk analysis
1. Risk of continued tight component supply: IGBT is an important component of inverters. If the supply of chips continues to be tight and may drive up inverter costs, the company's inverter shipments will be affected, thereby affecting the company's profitability; 2. The risk that the boom in the optical storage industry is not as good as expected: the solar photovoltaic and energy storage industry is highly correlated with macroeconomic conditions and national industrial policies. If the economic or industrial policies of major markets change significantly in the future, PV installations fall short of expectations, will affect the development of the industry and the company's operating income and growth rate to a certain extent;
3. Risk of worsening industry pattern and increased competition: The development prospects of photovoltaics and energy storage inverters are good. The production capacity of existing domestic inverter companies continues to expand, new enterprises are increasing one after another, industry competition intensifies, and the company's business performance may be affected.
4. The total amount of the company's external guarantees is no more than 27.889 billion yuan. If the insured party becomes at risk in the future, it will have a certain impact on the company.