On January 30, the company announced its full-year results forecast for '23. It achieved revenue of 488-498 million yuan (+3.8% to 6.0% year over year), revenue of 1.52 to 162 million yuan (+13% to 20%) in the fourth quarter; net profit to mother for the full year of '23 was 0.21 to 0.2 billion yuan (-49% to -66% year on year).
Multiple factors weighed on the results for the full year of '23. According to the announcement, the company's net profit declined throughout the year. The main factors were: 1) Depreciation and amortization expenses increased significantly due to the commissioning and use of fund-raising projects: according to the 23 mid-year report, depreciation of the company's fixed assets reached 15 million yuan (+150% year-on-year), and the sharp increase in fixed asset depreciation and amortization in 23 affected the release of performance; 2) Subsidiary orders declined: the holding subsidiary Chengdu Crescent reduced orders, which had a certain impact on performance; 3) Significant cost increases: personnel costs increased and production efficiency was phased, leading to an increase in management expenses and sales expenses, to a certain extent Influence performance.
Revenue improved month-on-month, and we are optimistic that 24 will usher in an inflection point in performance. 23Q4 expects to achieve revenue of 1.52 to 162 million yuan, +11.8% to 19.1% month-on-month, mainly due to the smooth delivery of some automobile and aerospace orders in the fourth quarter; as the company gradually opens up the Mexican market in the automotive sector and orders are gradually delivered in the aerospace sector, we are optimistic that 24-25 revenue scale will grow rapidly, and scale effects are expected to continue to show. The company's net interest rate is expected to be 5.8%/13.4%/15.0% in 23-25. We are optimistic that the company will usher in an inflection point in performance in 24.
Commercial space rockets and low-orbit satellites are expected to open up room for long-term growth. According to the announcement, the main business of the subsidiary Chengdu Crescent is currently aviation projects, commercial space rockets, and low-orbit satellite projects. Currently, commercial space rocket parts are ordered and delivered to customers in small quantities, which is expected to benefit from the boom in the low-orbit satellite industry in the future.
The automobile business exported smoothly and entered Mexico to open up new markets. According to the announcement, the company built an overseas warehouse at the Mexican factory to enter overseas markets. There are many Tier-1 automotive suppliers in Mexico, such as Magna and Valeo; the company is expected to drive high growth in the automobile export business with early overseas customer relationships and the high cost performance of its products.
We adjusted the profit forecast according to the announcement. We expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 495/8.42/1,084 million yuan, net profit to mother of 0.29/1.13/162 million yuan, corresponding PE of 102/26/18X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Aerospace business bidding falls short of expectations; risk of automobile sales falling short of expectations; risk of factory production capacity falling short of expectations; risk of loss of important customers; risk of lifting the ban on restricted shares.