Event: The company revealed its 23-year performance forecast: In 2023, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 40%-430 million yuan, up 122%-138% year-on-year, and achieve deduction of 3.6-397 billion yuan, an increase of 131%-150%; 23Q4 expects to achieve a return of 0.73 to 103 million yuan, +291%-451% year-on-year, non-0.62 to 92 million yuan, and +241%-405% year-on-year.
Medical and aesthetic aspects: (1) We expect the 23Q4 hyaluronic acid business to still achieve high growth, focusing on the progress of fourth-generation hyaluronic acid approval: ① Over the past 24 years, Haimei has gained recognition in the high-end macromolecular hyaluronic acid market segment through accurate product positioning and deep cooperation with institutions to achieve excellent sales performance. We expect 23Q4 shipments to continue to grow month-on-month; ② 23H2 is vigorously promoting Jiaolan's lip indications. The highlights are that the 1ml product 23H2 is expected to accelerate volume; 23H2 is expected to speed up the volume of 1ml products; uric acid ③ The main focus is amino acid crosslinking, which can effectively solve the toxic crosslinker residue problems that consumers are concerned about in the current market. It is expected to occupy the market through technical advantages. It is recommended to continue to monitor the progress of approval. (2) With the improvement of microsphere preparation technology, doctors' accumulation of more experience in deep injections, and the popularity of bone materials, in addition to the current popularity of PLLA injections in the domestic regeneration market, attention to hydroxyapatite-related materials is gradually increasing. The company Haimei Yunjing was listed in 2023. The registered indication is “suitable for non-load-bearing bone defects”. The product focuses on “5G memory regenerative filling”. The strategic cooperation of Donghong Yaoxing is promoting Haimei Yunjing products in national channel hospitals. As a high-customer, high-growth segmented racetrack product, it may be expected to support the high growth of the Haimei brand line in the future.
Crystal Mining's price reduction is expected to have an impact on dealers' willingness to pick up goods, or affect 23Q4 performance:
The crystal mining results were announced in November, and the company's new industry (Lenstec), Aaren, Henan Cosmos, Henan Semex, and ophthalmology viscoelastic products all won the bid. However, the price of this national procurement further declined on the basis of previous rounds of provincial alliance collection, and implementation began in '24, which may have an impact on 23Q4 patients' surgeries and the willingness of dealers to pick up the goods; in addition, the angle plastic business is affected by increased competition and industry competition, and we expect the industry's growth rate to slow down from previous years.
Profit forecast: The company's Jiaolan Lips Lip Enhancement & Haimei Hyaluronic Acid is expected to continue to be released, and the fourth generation of hyaluronic acid can be expected to be approved, which is expected to support continued high growth in the medical and aesthetic business and drive increased profitability; we expect the company to achieve net profit of 4.11/5.07/620 billion yuan respectively in 23-25 years, up 127.5%/23.4%/22.3% year on year, corresponding to current PE 38/31/25X, respectively.
Risk factors: New product approval progress falls short of expectations, new product promotion results fall short of expectations, and increased market competition.