Editor's note:《Inventory of major asset classes》The section closely follows macroeconomic developments, reviews the price performance of equity, bonds, foreign exchange, and commodities in the world's major markets to help people explore more investment opportunities in major asset classes.
In the first trading month of 2024, US stocks fluctuated and rose after experiencing a brief pullback at the beginning of the year. The US economy continues to show strong resilience beyond expectations. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the initial value of the US real GDP was 3.3% month-on-month discount. Although it slowed down from 4.9% in the previous quarter, it far exceeded the 2% growth rate expected by the market. Furthermore, US PCE inflation has further slowed, and interest rate cuts are expected to continue to heat up. These factors together support the rise in US stocks this month.
As of January 29, 2024:
Brushing up more than 6% this month, showing impressive performance. Cold waves, geographical risks, and many beneficial factors are being compounded. Everbright Futures said that oil prices fell first and then rose in January. Currently, oil prices are showing an upward breakthrough trend, mainly due to increased supply-side concerns and marginal demand improvement. Overall, the focus of oil prices fluctuated upward. Judging from the oil distribution, we need to pay attention to whether the resistance around 85 US dollars/barrel can be broken through.
On the stock market side, since GDP data showed that the US economy was resilient beyond expectations, compounded by slowing inflation and rising expectations of interest rate cuts, the three major US stock indices all recorded increases. The NASDAQ rose 4.11%, the S&P 500 index rose 3.31%, and the Dow rose 1.71%.
The Nikkei 225 Index surged 7.66% cumulatively, breaking a 33-year high. Hong Kong stocks continued to adjust this month, with the Hang Seng Index falling 5.69% and the Science Index plummeting 14.9%.
Since the beginning of the year, Fed officials have frequently released hawkish opinions, causing the market to lower the number of times the Fed cut interest rates this year, causing the 10-year US bond yield to return above 4%. Goldman Sachs Group strategists said that a strong economic outlook is helping the US stock market withstand rising treasury yields. If monetary policy remains tight and other factors drive yields to rise too fast, this situation may still change.
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