23 年Q4 归母净利同比上升，下游客户需求持续释放公司2023 年全年实现归母净利润1.50-1.84 亿元，符合我们预期。根据公司公告测算2023 Q4 实现归母净利润0.41-0.75 亿元，同比增长10.81%-102.70%；实现扣非归母净利润0.34-0.68 亿元，同比增长3.03%-106.06%。Incidents:
On January 29, 2024, the company announced a pre-increase in its 2023 results: it is expected to achieve net profit of 150-184 million yuan for the full year of 2023, an increase of 22.53%-50.30% over the previous year; net profit after deduction is estimated to be 140 to 174 million yuan, an increase of 22.32%-52.02% year-on-year.
Key points of investment:
Net profit to mother rose year-on-year in Q4 in '23, and downstream customer demand continued to release the company's net profit to the mother for the full year of 2023, which was in line with our expectations. According to the company announcement, Q4 2023 achieved net profit of 0.41 to 75 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.81%-102.70%; net profit without deduction to mother was 0.34-0.68 billion yuan, an increase of 3.03%-106.06% over the previous year.
The main reasons for the high growth in the company's performance in 2023 are: 1) the company's downstream demand boom and the year-on-year increase in new targeted projects; 2) the company continues to develop new customers, and the product and customer structure has been further optimized.
The product matrix is rich, and the new energy business boosts the company's performance. The company is a high-quality automotive rubber and plastic hose supplier. It has nine series of products, including automotive cooling system hose assemblies, multi-layer composite nylon hoses, and turbocharger pipeline assemblies, and has integrated supply capabilities. With its advantages such as synergy and cost control, the company quickly entered the new energy circuit and developed many high-quality NEV customers such as BYD, Changan, Ideal, and Cyrus, benefiting from downstream one-stop procurement. The company's competitive advantage is obvious, and the NEV business revenue share continues to rise, driving the company's performance to continue to improve.
Actively cultivate second-generation growth curve companies such as energy storage and data center pipelines, and develop cooling pipeline systems in the fields of energy storage and big data supercomputing while building on their main business, as well as pipeline systems in rail transit, oil and gas exploration, ships, etc., to cultivate new growth points for future rapid development. At present, the company's products in the field of energy storage have cooperated with more than 40 customers, including G customers, B customers, and Q customers, and have achieved batch supply. The data center piping system has also become a key supplier for domestic No. 1 customers, and is being successfully promoted and implemented according to customer procedures.
Investment advice and profit forecasting
Based on the increase in the share of the company's new energy business, the systematic management of hoses and the increase in profitability, and the continuous expansion of key new energy customers, and taking into account the acceleration of energy storage and data center business expansion, the company's 2023-2025 net profit forecast of 1.64/2.05/269 million yuan was maintained. The basic earnings per share corresponding to 2023-2025 are: 0.76/0.94/1.24 yuan, respectively, corresponding to the current stock price. The 2023-2025 PE was 19.24/15.41/11.74 times, respectively, maintaining the company's “gain” rating.
Risk warning
Risk of downstream vehicle production and sales falling short of expectations, risk of rising raw material costs exceeding expectations, risk of worsening industry competition exceeding expectations, risk of macroeconomic environment and market environment falling short of expectations