Incident: The company released its 2023 performance forecast. For the full year of '23, the company achieved net profit of about 354 million yuan, an increase of about 696.70% over the previous year, and realized net profit without deduction of about 313 million yuan, an increase of about 2270.60% over the previous year. In the fourth quarter of 2023, net profit attributable to mother was about 197 million yuan, an increase of about 233.90% month-on-month, and realized net profit deducted from non-return to mother was about 184 million yuan, an increase of about 234.55% over the previous quarter.
The company is the world's leading manufacturer of photovoltaic brackets and BIPV systems, and the tracking bracket business is leading in the industry. Benefiting from the expansion of the scale of centralized ground power plant construction at home and abroad, the company's scaffolding business, especially the tracking bracket business that matches the needs of overseas markets, has grown. The company has established a marketing network and supply delivery system to serve the world, respond quickly to incremental market demand, and achieve great growth in performance.
The business focuses on centralized ground-based power plants, and the demand side continues to improve. Due to falling prices in the middle and upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain, the scale of investment and construction of centralized terrestrial power plants in the downstream market continues to increase, and demand for bracket products has expanded accordingly. The company is leading the industry in the field of photovoltaic stents, seizing growth opportunities. The company promoted a global strategy, and its market share in the Middle East and Latin America market increased, and received orders for overseas GW tracking support system projects. At the same time, the company seizes market opportunities and actively invests in R&D, and the core competitiveness of future products will be further strengthened.
The company has a forward-looking layout in overseas markets and has sufficient orders for tracking brackets in hand. In order to continuously expand its market share, the company is actively expanding production capacity. The company invests no more than 60 million US dollars to build a subsidiary in Saudi Arabia; invests in the construction of a 3GW production base in Brazil to explore the Latin American market; and expands the production capacity of supporting structural parts for tracking brackets by about 2 GW in India, which can meet the localization requirements of overseas tracking bracket orders in the future. As of December 31, '23, the company had orders of about 4.7 billion yuan, of which the tracking bracket system was about 3.6 billion yuan. The gross profit of tracking brackets is relatively high, and at the same time, the share of sales scale continues to increase, leading to a continuous increase in the company's overall profitability.
Investment advice: We expect the company to achieve revenue of 66.21/80.36/9.8880 billion yuan in 2023-2025, net profit to mother of 3.56/4.95/612 million yuan, EPS of 2.62/3.64/4.51 yuan respectively, and PE of 30/22/17 times. This is the first coverage, giving it a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Market competition intensifies; market demand falls short of expectations; risk of economic fluctuations.