① As the January market comes to an end this week, for many Wall Street investors, this year's market has actually always been another mystery that is difficult to solve ② That is why is it clear that US bond yields rose as a whole in January, yet US stocks still perform so well? ③ The answer given by Goldman Sachs stock strategists, led by David Kostin, seems simple — just because the US economy is so good.
Financial Services Association, January 30 (Editor: Xiaoxiang) As the January market comes to an end this week, for many Wall Street investors, this year's market market actually still has a mystery that is difficult to unravel — that is, why apparently US bond yields rose overall in January (interest rate cuts are expected to cool down), yet US stocks still perform so well?
The answer given by Goldman Sachs stock strategists, led by David Kostin, seems simple — just because the US economy is so good.
Goldman Sachs Group strategists said that a strong economic outlook is helping the US stock market withstand rising treasury yields. Of course, if monetary policy remains tight and other factors drive yields to rise too fast, this situation may still change.
Goldman Sachs pointed out in the report that since long-term US bond yields began to rise in July last year, the S&P 500 index and 10-year US bond yields have actually been negatively correlated.
During this period, the S&P 500 index experienced a sharp sell-off because US bond yields rose to a 16-year high in October last year, making the stock less attractive. It wasn't until the last few months of last year, when the yield opposite of the bond price finally fell, that US stocks took advantage of the momentum to quickly rebound.
However, in the past month, the above last year's market rules don't seem to “work” anymore...
As shown in the chart above, since January, even though the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by nearly 30 basis points, breaking 4.1% at one point, the US stock rate has reached a record high.
Is the US economy too good changing the correlation between equity and debt?
Goldman Sachs strategists believe that one of the reasons for the strong performance of the stock market is that the outlook for the US economy is constantly improving.
Their data shows that since 1990, when the US Treasury yield curve became steeper, the median monthly return was 1.3% for the S&P 500 index.
Goldman Sachs strategists point out, however, that when economic growth expectations improve rather than weaken, regardless of whether the yield curve becomes steeper or flatter, the return on the stock market will increase dramatically.
They wrote, “As investors' concerns about the possible tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve decrease, economic growth expectations should become a more important driver of the current market, thereby reducing the negative correlation between US stocks and US bond yields this year.”
Goldman Sachs said in another report released recently: “We expect the US GDP growth rate to be much stronger in 2024 than the market's general opinion, and the risk of a recession is also expected to be much lower.”
Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 index to rise to 5,100 points by the end of 2024, up more than 4% from last Friday's closing price.
However, the Goldman Sachs strategist also mentioned, “If interest rates rise sharply from current levels due to changes in the Federal Reserve's policy or the balance between supply and demand for treasury bonds, the stock market may be in trouble. Furthermore, if US bond yields rise faster than recent levels, regardless of the reason, the stock market will also be under pressure.”
Editor/Somer