Profits are expected to continue to grow rapidly and maintain a “buy” rating
The company released an annual report forecast. In 2023, the company forecast net profit to mother was 2.08-265 million yuan, up 2.4%-30.5%; net profit without return to mother was 1.53 to 210 million yuan, -9.8%-23.8%; 23Q4 net profit to mother was 0.41 to 98 million yuan in a single quarter, or -37.0%-50.4% year on year, net profit without return to mother of 0.34 to 0.91 billion yuan, year-on-year. The company has a good card position in the data industry and is expected to continue to benefit from the development of the data industry. The estimated EPS for 23-25 will be 0.70/0.89/1.17 yuan. According to segmented valuation, the 24E industry data service sector has revenue of 962 million yuan. Comparable companies average 24E 7.2xPS (Wind), giving 24E 7.2xPS; it is estimated that steel and silver e-commerce will contribute 164 million yuan in net profit to listed companies in 24 years. Comparable companies will average 24E 18.7xPE (Wind), giving 24E 18.7xPE (Wind), with a target price of 31.03 yuan, “buy”.
Industry data services: Revenue increased 16% in 2013, focusing on data factor/AI industry transformation. In 2023, the company's industrial data service revenue was 801 million yuan, an increase of 16%. In the 23Q4 single quarter, industry data service revenue was 203 million yuan, an increase of 7%. The development quality of industrial data services continues to improve. On December 27, 2023, the company passed the evaluation and acceptance of the national “Commodity Industry Information and Data Service Standardization Pilot” project with a high score. Furthermore, in September 2023, the Australian FEX Global Futures Exchange officially launched futures and options contracts based on the 62% Australian powder forward spot price index issued by the company, and the company's international influence gradually expanded. In terms of the application of data elements, the company continues to optimize the Shanghai Steel Union EBC platform, strengthen the dynamic monitoring of prices at both ends of enterprise user procurement and sales through internal and external data integration, and improve the level of intelligent user management.
Steel trading services: 23Q4 platform settlement volume increased by 31%
In 2023, the settlement volume of the steel silver and steel spot trading platform of the holding subsidiary Gangyin E-commerce was 63.6 million tons, an increase of 20%. The settlement volume of the 23Q4 Gangyin e-commerce platform was 17.27 million tons, an increase of 30.6%, and continued to increase.
Steel and silver e-commerce continues to improve system risk control capabilities, optimize product structures, give full play to the platform's core enterprise links and service capabilities, use next-generation information technology such as big data and cloud computing to empower upstream and downstream industries, accelerate industrial data connectivity and digital upgrading, and help build a transparent, efficient and collaborative supply chain system.
We believe that the steady development of steel and silver e-commerce related businesses is expected to continue to drive the company's growth.
The data industry has good card slots, which is expected to benefit from data element/AI industry development companies having good card positions in the data industry. By the end of 23Q3, there were 3,267 industrial data service personnel. As of 23H1, 21 major databases had been built, with more than 150 segmented databases, involving more than 8,000 segments. The company actively grasps opportunities in the data element industry and has signed strategic cooperation agreements with the Shanghai Digital Exchange and Shenzhen Data Exchange. In terms of the application of AI technology, the company has officially released the “Steel Union Grandmaster” commodity industry standard language model and the “Xiaogang” digital intelligent assistant. We believe that with the continuous development of the data element industry and the iteration of AI technology, the company's industrial data sector is expected to accelerate development.
Risk warning: The risk that the expansion of industrial data services is lower than expected, and the risk that e-commerce transaction volume of steel and silver will decline.