The company achieved net profit of 93-10.3 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 159-187% over the previous year. Sunshine Power released a performance forecast. In 2023, it achieved revenue of 710-76 billion yuan, an increase of 76%-89% over the previous year, and achieved net profit of 93-10.3 billion yuan, an increase of 159-187% over the previous year. Corresponding to Q4's revenue of 245.85-29.585 billion yuan, up 36.3%-64% year on year and 38.2%-66.3% month on month, Q4 achieved net profit to mother of 20.77-3.077 billion yuan, up 35.5%-100.7% year on year, and -27.6% to +7.2% month on month.
The company plans to split its holding subsidiary Sunshine New Energy and go public in China. Sunshine New Energy is mainly engaged in system R&D, project development and system solution sales business for new energy power plants. In the first three quarters of 2023, Sunshine New Energy achieved revenue of 13.8 billion yuan, net profit of 702 million yuan, and a net interest rate of 5.1%. This spin-off and listing is conducive to optimizing the layout of Sunshine Power in the field of new energy development and strengthening the market and technical advantages of the new energy power plant development business. At the same time, the company plans to increase the capital of Sunshine New Energy by 1 billion yuan, of which 79 million yuan will be used for additional share capital and 921 million yuan for capital reserve. After the capital increase is completed, the registered capital of Sunshine New Energy will increase from 1.42 billion yuan to 1,499 billion yuan, and the company's shareholding ratio of Sunshine New Energy will increase from 82% to 82.94%. Currently, the capital increase plan has been reviewed by the company's board of directors and extraordinary shareholders' meeting.
The company announced the 2023 equity incentive plan. The company's equity incentive targets a total of 518 people, and plans to grant a total of 11.5 million shares, accounting for 0.77% of the company's total share capital. The share incentive grant price is 43.22 yuan/share. The total management expenses generated by this equity incentive amount to 427 million yuan, and will amortize 2.17/1.17/0.65/0.28 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2027. The company's 2023 equity incentive assessment plan is for 2024 to 2027 operating income of not less than 724.7/885.7/1046.8/120.78 billion yuan, respectively, or net profit to mother of not less than 79/86.2/93.4/10.06 billion yuan, respectively. Currently, the equity incentive plan has been reviewed by the company's board of directors and the extraordinary shareholders' meeting.
Shipments from storage alone have maintained a high increase, and the market share of leading companies has remained stable. We estimate that the company will ship 120-140GW of photovoltaic inverters in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 56%-82%. Of these, Q4 will ship 35.5-55.5GW. In terms of energy storage systems, we estimate that 2023 will ship 12-15 GWh, an increase of 56%-95% year-on-year, of which Q4 will ship 4-7 GWh. Looking ahead to 2024, we expect the company to ship 150-170GW of photovoltaic inverters, up 7%-42% year on year, and 20-24 GWh of energy storage systems, up 33%-100% year on year. Against the backdrop of continued high installed demand in the optical storage industry, the market share of leading companies will remain stable.
Investment advice: Lower profit forecasts and maintain a “buy” rating. Based on the company's current performance, considering changes in the competitive pattern of the global optical storage industry and changes in market prices, we lowered the company's profit forecast. The estimated net profit for 2023-2025 was 97.76/88.48/9.594 billion yuan (the original forecast was 99.18/100.34/11.741 billion yuan, the year-on-year growth rates were 172/ -9.5%/8.4%, respectively, and EPS was 6.58/5.96/6.46 yuan, respectively. The corresponding valuation is 12.2/13.5/12.5 times. Maintain a buy rating.
Risk warning: risk of fluctuations in raw materials, risk of increased industry competition, risk of global policy fluctuations.