Is There A Right Time To Buy Dividend Stocks?

How to find treasure in a volatile market? High dividends on Hong Kong stocks are still an effective “volatile market strategy”

年初以来市场对高股息策略愈发关注，尤其在国企改革政策预期的背景下。复盘历史来看，港股高股息是较好的“震荡市策略”，且计算股息率贡献后，更是有效的“长效策略”。而这与其稳定的业绩回报及分红比例息息相关。

港股高股息策略是有效的“震荡市策略”

年初以来在市场情绪偏弱的环境下高股息策略表现优异，尤其国企改革政策预期更加有利于高股息板块中央国企的表现。复盘历史，高股息价格指数往往能够在震荡市中取得超额收益；而全收益指数更是行之有效的“长效策略”。这与高股息策略稳定的业绩回报及分红比例息息相关。

2013年以来，估值、盈利、股息率分别对恒生高股息全收益指数累计产生-51.2%/+50.9%/+73.6%的贡献。恒生高股息指数近十年来的股息率平均高出恒生综指近3个百分点；其2015年以来的平均ROE为10.4%，远高于恒生综指的5.1%。

另外，我们也观察到，高股息指数的超额收益与我国制造业PMI显著负相关，而2018年以来则与长端美债利率走势显著正相关。这也表明其与国内经济基本面及外围流动性环境的变化存在较强相关性。

港股高股息交易拥挤度有所抬升，但尚未“过度拥挤”

多维度衡量高股息策略的拥挤度。从相对估值水平看，当前恒生高股息指数相对恒生综指的PE处在32.7%的历史分位。从交易维度看，恒生高股息指数相对恒生综指的换手率比值从2023年7月以来持续回落，当前接近历史低位。尽管近期恒生高股息指数成交额占比有所回升，当前约14%，但仍低于2023年5月及9-10月间的水平。

结合指数涨跌幅的波动率及峰度，尽管近期高股息拥挤度有所抬升，但仍处在历史较为安全的分位上，尚未造成“过度拥挤”。

分行业来看，2023年12月起，主要高股息板块交易拥挤度均显著抬升，当前公用事业、工业、金融板块高股息成交占比相对偏高，处于2022年以来的85.7%/82.8%/82.6%历史分位，仍需跟踪观察可能出现的部分板块交易热度提升后的资金调仓变化。

估值体系的差异是AH股息率差值的本质

股息率实质上是现金分红比例与PE倒数的乘积，而股价上涨带来的“股息率悖论”核心是企业估值合理水平的定价，这在AH两地上市企业中体现尤为明显。

H股更高的股息率背后是为港股相对较弱的流动性环境、投资者结构的高度机构化、较高的外部风险暴露程度、以及更高的交易费用等因素“买单”。

考虑到税制、A股港股流动性体系的差异等历史原因短时间内较难改变，但当前AH溢价已经处于历史高位的151，港股相对估值深度折价明显。

我们也可以通过对比征税后的AH股息率差值、AH溢价历史分位选择具备更高相对配置价值的个股。综合来看，港股高股息策略仍具备较强的配置优势。

配置建议：优选确定性中的α

展望未来，尽管近期超预期降准、地产一系列政策的出台短期内有望带动市场情绪回暖，但结合当前较为低迷的市场情绪，后续市场的持续上涨仍有待政策及基本面数据的持续落地。叠加外围美联储货币宽松预期的再调整及美债利率超预期上涨的风险仍可能在上半年压制港股市场估值，我们仍旧看好“震荡市”港股高股息资产的配置价值。

“高股息策略”代表企业兼具低估值和高分红意愿的特征，但这并不仅仅意味着业绩的高确定性，同样也包含大量具备业绩成长性的顺周期企业。

风险因素：

1）国内政策推出和经济复苏不及预期；2）海外央行超预期收紧货币；3）全球地缘冲突恶化；4）短期市场拥挤度过高带来的资金调仓行为。

编辑/Somer

Since the beginning of the year, the market has paid more and more attention to high dividend strategies, especially in the context of state-owned enterprise reform policy expectations. Judging from the review history, a high dividend for Hong Kong stocks is a good “volatile market strategy”, and after calculating the dividend rate contribution, it is an effective “long-term strategy.” And this is closely related to its stable performance return and dividend ratio.

The high dividend strategy for Hong Kong stocks is an effective “volatile market strategy”

Since the beginning of the year, high dividend strategies have performed well in an environment where market sentiment is weak. In particular, the state-owned enterprise reform policy is expected to be more favorable to the performance of central state-owned enterprises in the high-dividend sector. In retrading history, high dividend price indices have often been able to obtain excess returns in volatile markets; while the full return index is an effective “long-term strategy”. This is closely related to the stable performance return and dividend ratio of high dividend strategies.

Since 2013, valuation, profit, and dividend ratio have respectively contributed -51.2%/+50.9%/+73.6% to the Hang Seng High Dividend Full Income Index. The average dividend rate of the Hang Seng High Dividend Index over the past ten years is nearly 3 percentage points higher than the Hang Seng Composite Index; its average ROE since 2015 was 10.4%, far higher than the Hang Seng Composite Index's 5.1%.

In addition, we have also observed that excess earnings from the high dividend index are significantly negatively correlated with China's manufacturing PMI, while since 2018, there has been a significant positive correlation with interest rate trends on long-term US bonds. This also shows that it is strongly correlated with changes in the fundamentals of the domestic economy and the peripheral liquidity environment.

The congestion level of high-dividend trading in Hong Kong stocks has increased, but it is not yet “overcrowded”

Multiple dimensions measure how crowded high-dividend strategies are. Judging from the relative valuation level, the Hang Seng High Dividend Index is currently in the historical ranking of 32.7% compared to PE of the Hang Seng Composite Index. From a trading perspective, the turnover ratio of the Hang Seng High Dividend Index to the Hang Seng Composite Index has continued to decline since July 2023, and is currently close to an all-time low. Despite a recent recovery in the share of the Hang Seng High Dividend Index's turnover, which is currently around 14%, it is still below the level between May and September-October 2023.

Combined with the volatility and peak of the index's rise and fall, despite a recent rise in high dividend congestion, it is still in a relatively safe position in history, and it has not caused “overcrowding.”

By industry, trading congestion in major high-dividend sectors has increased markedly since December 2023. Currently, the utility, industrial, and financial sectors account for a relatively high share of high-dividend transactions, which are at the historical level of 85.7%/82.8%/82.6% since 2022. We still need to track and observe possible changes in capital adjustments after the popularity of transactions in some sectors has increased.

Differences in valuation systems are the essence of AH dividend rate differences

The dividend rate is essentially the product of the cash dividend ratio and the inverse of PE, and the core of the “dividend rate paradox” brought about by rising stock prices is pricing at a reasonable level of corporate valuation. This is particularly evident among listed companies in AH.

Behind the higher dividend rate of H shares is a “payment” for factors such as the relatively weak liquidity environment for Hong Kong stocks, a high degree of institutionalization of the investor structure, high exposure to external risks, and higher transaction costs.

Considering historical reasons such as differences in the tax system and the liquidity system for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, it is difficult to change in a short period of time, but currently the AH premium is already at an all-time high of 151, and the depth of Hong Kong stock discounts are obvious compared to the valuation.

We can also select individual stocks with higher relative allocation value by comparing the AH dividend rate difference and AH premium historical quantification after taxation. Taken together, the high dividend strategy of Hong Kong stocks still has a strong allocation advantage.

Configuration recommendation: α in Preferred Determinism

Looking forward to the future, despite the recent downgrade that has exceeded expectations and the introduction of a series of real estate policies is expected to lead to a recovery in market sentiment in the short term, combined with the current sluggish market sentiment, the continued rise in the subsequent market is still awaiting continued implementation of policies and fundamental data. Combined with the re-adjustment of the peripheral Federal Reserve's monetary easing expectations and the risk that interest rates on US bonds will rise above expectations, the valuation of the Hong Kong stock market may still suppress the valuation of the Hong Kong stock market in the first half of the year. We are still optimistic about the allocation value of high-dividend assets in the “volatile market” of Hong Kong stocks.

A “high dividend strategy” represents the characteristics of an enterprise that is both undervalued and willing to pay dividends, but this does not only mean a high degree of certainty in performance, but also includes a large number of procyclical companies with performance growth.

Risk Factors:

1) The introduction of domestic policies and economic recovery fell short of expectations; 2) Overseas central banks tightened currencies beyond expectations; 3) worsened global geopolitical conflicts; 4) Capital position adjustments caused by excessive short-term market congestion.

Editor/Somer

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