Key points of investment:
Maintain the increase in holdings. The 2023 performance report is slightly higher than expected. The forecast is that EPS will grow by 12% to 0.79 yuan (originally 0.77 yuan) in 2023; due to the complicated foreign trade environment, the 2024-25 EPS growth rate was lowered by 12/ 11% to 0.89/0.99 yuan (originally 0.9/1.02 yuan), maintaining the target price of 10.89 yuan to maintain the increase in holdings.
The company disclosed its 2023 performance report. 1) Expected revenue of 123 billion yuan/ -12.9% for 2023, net profit of 1,029 million yuan/ +12.8%, deducted from 785 million yuan/ +3.03%; 2) Expected Q4 revenue of 26.9 billion yuan/ +2.77%, the growth rate recovers from the previous 2 quarters; net profit to mother of 134 million yuan/ +3.77%; deducted not 82 million yuan/ +0.53%; 3) The foreign trade environment in 2023 is complex. The company adheres to the “five certainties”, and the supply chain sector optimizes the market structure and product development additional structure value Business; The industrial chain sector consolidates overseas, expands domestically, promotes product development and innovation, and achieves steady growth.
Important orders for ships have been placed, and the core business sector continues the upward trend. 1) On January 18, the company's New Ocean Shipbuilding and Japanese shipowner Kasuga Shipping successfully signed two new shipbuilding contracts for CROWN63 PLUS, the first order to enter the Japanese market; 2) Up to now, the company has ordered more than 60 ships in the shipbuilding business, which is scheduled to reach 2026. Order release is expected to accelerate, and profit margins are expected to increase profits in the marine sector; 3) The post-production cycle of the US real estate industry is expected to resume healthy growth; 4) The light textile sector will resume healthy growth in the early part of the year. Spring and summer sports and sun protection clothing categories Single achieved higher year-on-year growth.
The market value is included in the assessment, and the company hopes to fully benefit as a benchmark enterprise for national reform. 1) The State Assets Administration Commission proposed to fully implement the market value management assessment of listed companies and include it in the performance assessment of central enterprise leaders. As a central enterprise China Machinery Group holding company, the company actively implements national reform and incentives for key employees, hoping to fully benefit; 2) Major shareholders/brother units have strong resource endowment advantages and are optimistic about continuous optimization of the business structure, steady increase in ROE, and continued profit growth; 3) Since listing, the dividend rate of about 4.1% is at the top of the industry. Currently, PE is underestimated by 8 times.
Risk warning: commodity price fluctuations, economic fluctuations, shocks from other competitors, etc.