Juchen Co., Ltd. (688123) 4Q23: SPD revenue resumed month-on-month growth

4Q23：SPD 营收环比大幅增长，经营性利润环比改善

1 月26 日公司发布2023 年业绩预告，预计全年实现归母净利润0.95-1.03亿元（yoy：-73.15%~ -70.89%），扣非归母净利润0.85-0.93 亿元（yoy：-78.36%~-76.32%）。按照中值计算，4Q23 预计实现归母净利润1658 万元（yoy：-82.62%，qoq：-12.08%），扣非净利润2224 万元（yoy：-77.37%，qoq：+1.70%）。4Q23 随着下游内存模组厂商库存水位逐步改善，以及DDR5内存模组的渗透率持续提升，公司四季度尤其是12 月份SPD 销量及收入环比均实现较大幅度增长，我们预计4Q23 整体营收环比有所改善，归母净利润环比下降主要由于投资收益减少以及股权激励费用、年底奖金等支出较多，实际扣非利润环比略有改善。考虑服务器/PC 下游复苏仍需时间，基于23/24/25 年归母净利润预测1/3.48/4.89 亿元，给予30x 24PE（可比公司wind 一致预期37x），目标价66 元，维持“买入”评级。

4Q23 回顾：内存模组库存水位改善，SPD 营收恢复环比增长2023 年受个人电脑/服务器市场需求疲软，全球主要内存模组厂商通过暂停采购和削减产能等方式减轻库存压力，导致公司SPD 销量及收入同比出现较大幅度下滑，致使利润端承压。四季度以来内存模组厂商库存去化接近尾声，DDR5 内存模组渗透率亦逐步攀升，公司SPD 出货量在12 月份出现环比较大幅度增长，价格环比保持稳定。此外，公司手机相关产品（EEPROM、音圈马达驱动）营收环比保持稳定增长，汽车EEPROM 持续放量，预计4Q23 整体营收环比有所增加。我们预计公司4Q23 毛利率在SPD 放量的拉动下环比改善，带动经营性利润环比略有增加。

2024 展望：SPD 有望恢复同比增长，汽车EEPROM+音圈马达贡献增量Intel 在4Q23 业绩会表示将在1H24 推出Sierra Forest（已向客户提供样品）

和Grantie Rapids（已进入验证阶段），我们认为相关产品发布将助推DDR5渗透率进一步提升，公司SPD 产品销售有望恢复同比增长。同时，我们期待公司音圈马达新品陆续起量以及拓展至汽车、工控等市场：1）加快A1等级车规级芯片的导入，并进一步完善在A0 等级的技术积累和产品布局；2）多款NOR Flash 已通过第三方权威机构的AEC-Q100 Grade 1 车规电子可靠性试验验证，24 年有望逐步起量；3）部分规格型号的光学防抖音圈马达驱动芯片产品已小批量向目标客户送样测试。

投资建议：目标价66 元，维持“买入”评级

我们给予23/24/25 年归母净利润预测1/3.48/4.89 亿元，考虑服务器/PC 下游需求复苏仍需时间，给予公司30x 24PE（可比公司Wind 一致性预期均值37x 24PE），目标价66 元，维持“买入”评级。

风险提示：DDR5 渗透率不及预期，竞争加剧导致价格持续下跌。

4Q23: SPD revenue increased significantly month-on-month, and operating profit improved month-on-month

On January 26, the company announced its 2023 performance forecast. It is expected to achieve net profit of 905-103 million yuan (yoy: -73.15% to -70.89%) for the whole year, after deducting non-attributable net profit of 0.8-93 billion yuan (yoy: -78.36% to -76.32%). According to the median calculation, 4Q23 is expected to achieve net profit of 16.58 million yuan (yoy: -82.62%, qoq: -12.08%), after deducting non-net profit of 22.24 million yuan (yoy: -77.37%, qoq: +1.70%). 4Q23 As the inventory level of downstream memory module manufacturers gradually improved and the penetration rate of DDR5 memory modules continued to increase, the company achieved significant month-on-month growth in SPD sales and revenue in the fourth quarter, especially in December. We expect 4Q23's overall revenue to improve month-on-month, and the month-on-month decline in net profit due mainly to reduced investment income and higher expenses such as equity incentives and year-end bonuses. Actual deduction of non-profit improved slightly month-on-month. Considering that the downstream recovery of servers/PCs will take time, based on the 23/24/25 net profit forecast of 1/3.48/489 million yuan, 30 x 24 PE (comparable company wind's consistent estimate of 37x) was given, and the target price was 66 yuan to maintain the “buy” rating.

4Q23 review: Memory module inventory levels improved, and SPD revenue resumed month-on-month growth in 2023 due to weak demand in the PC/server market. Major global memory module manufacturers reduced inventory pressure by suspending procurement and reducing production capacity, leading to a sharp year-on-year decline in the company's SPD sales and revenue, causing pressure on the profit side. Since the fourth quarter, the elimination of memory module manufacturers' inventory has come to an end, and the penetration rate of DDR5 memory modules has gradually increased. The company's SPD shipments increased dramatically in December, and prices remained stable from month to month. In addition, the company's revenue for mobile phone-related products (EEPROM, voice coil motor drives) maintained steady month-on-month growth, and automotive EEPROM continued to increase, and overall revenue is expected to increase in 4Q23. We expect the company's 4Q23 gross margin to improve month-on-month, driven by SPD emissions, leading to a slight increase in operating profit month-on-month.

2024 outlook: SPD is expected to resume year-on-year growth, and automotive EEPROM+ voice coil motors contribute incremental Intel's 4Q23 results indicate that it will launch Sierra Forest on 1H24 (samples have been provided to customers)

With Grantie Rapids (which have entered the verification stage), we believe that the release of related products will further increase the DDR5 penetration rate, and the company's SPD product sales are expected to resume year-on-year growth. At the same time, we expect the company to launch new voice coil motor products one after another and expand to the automotive, industrial control and other markets: 1) accelerate the introduction of A1 grade automotive grade chips and further improve the A0 level technology accumulation and product layout; 2) various NOR Flash models have passed AEC-Q100 Grade 1 automotive electronic reliability testing and verification by third party authorities, and are expected to be gradually launched in 24 years; 3) Some specifications and models of optical anti-shake voice coil motor driver chip products have been sent to target customers in small batches.

Investment advice: Target price of 66 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating

We gave the 23/24/25 net profit forecast of 1/3.48/489 million yuan. Considering that it will take time for downstream server/PC demand to recover, we gave the company 30x 24PE (comparable to the average wind consistency expected of the company 37x 24PE), with a target price of 66 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: The DDR5 penetration rate fell short of expectations, and prices continued to fall due to increased competition.

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聚辰股份(688123)4Q23：SPD营收环比恢复增长

Juchen Co., Ltd. (688123) 4Q23: SPD revenue resumed month-on-month growth

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