Net profit to mother increased 51-91% year-on-year in 23Q4

The company's net profit to mother was 315-400 million in 2023, up 51%-91%; of these, 23Q4 net profit to mother was 0.4-125 million, and 22Q4 net profit was 0.04 billion, a significant year-on-year increase; in 2023, net profit from non-return to mother was 3-380 million, an increase of 66%-110%, of which 23Q4 net profit from non-return mother was 0.29-109 million, an increase of 107%-679%.

The sharp increase in performance is mainly due to the company actively promoting the implementation of the smart value-added service platform strategy, using various means to strengthen cooperation with important strategic customers, and strive to increase market share and expand the international market.

The company actively explores internal exploration, strengthens process control, strengthens R&D and lean management, continuously promotes manufacturing cost reduction and efficiency measures, increases capacity utilization, and increases overall gross margin, thus driving growth in business performance.

Three-piece cans actively increase market share externally and strengthen internal process control; two-piece cans promote speeding up technical transformation and new production capacity construction in existing factories and strengthening international market development.

Among them, in terms of overseas business, when actual global demand is sluggish, the company promptly adjusted its market strategy, strengthened cooperative relationships with original core customers, and actively developed new customers.

The filling business is growing steadily, and the service capacity continues to improve; the aluminum bottle business is in line with the trend of upgrading the downstream beer consumption structure.

The filling business continues to contribute value to the group company and also strongly promotes the growth of the canning business; in the aluminum bottle business, the company continues to supply brands such as Budweiser, Qingdao, Carlsberg, China Resources Snowflake, and Heineken, with good market feedback.

Raise profit forecasts and maintain “buy” ratings

At present, the company is one of the leading domestic enterprises specializing in metal packaging for FMCG products such as food, beverages, and beer. Relying on industrial layout and scale, quality control, “stick-in” business model, comprehensive solutions, interdependent customer groups, intelligent packaging and brand advantages, the company has formed a strong integrated metal packaging service capability with “promotion” characteristics. Considering that the company is stabilizing its main business and actively promoting the construction of an intelligent value-added integrated service platform for customers, and considering this performance forecast, the company's net profit to mother increased by 51%-91% year-on-year. We raised our profit forecast. The estimated revenue for 23-25 years was 83.25/99.88/12.166 billion yuan, respectively, and the net profit to the mother was 3.81/4.32/499 million yuan respectively (previous values were 3.41/4.11/473 million yuan, respectively) and EPS was 0.39/ 0.44/0.51 yuan/share, corresponding PE is 13/11/10X, respectively.

Risk warning: risk of price fluctuations of major raw materials; risk of product quality control; risk of operation management of business growth and diversified development; performance forecasts are only preliminary estimates, subject to the company's 2023 annual report.