With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 38.3x Heilongjiang Transport Development Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601188) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 31x and even P/E's lower than 19x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
For instance, Heilongjiang Transport Development's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
See our latest analysis for Heilongjiang Transport Development
How Is Heilongjiang Transport Development's Growth Trending?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Heilongjiang Transport Development's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 6.6%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 35% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 42% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.
In light of this, it's alarming that Heilongjiang Transport Development's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Key Takeaway
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of Heilongjiang Transport Development revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Heilongjiang Transport Development you should be aware of, and 2 of them are potentially serious.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Heilongjiang Transport Development, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.