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US stock outlook | A new low since March 2021! The core inflation target favored by the Federal Reserve fell below 3%; the results were underestimated by many major banks, and Intel fell more than 9% before the market

Futu News · Jan 26 21:40

全球宏观

周五盘前，三大期指小幅走低

美国经济分析局公布的数据显示，美国12月核心PCE物价指数同比上升2.9%，为2021年3月以来新低，预估为3.0%，前值为3.2%。美国12月核心PCE物价指数环比上升0.2%，为2023年9月以来新高，预估为0.2%，前值为0.1%。

在经济数据公布后，美国短期利率期货下跌，交易员减少对美联储降息的押注。

另外，美国12月个人支出环比上升0.7%，为2023年9月以来新高，预估为0.5%，前值为0.2%。

美国GDP超预期，意味着软着陆？未必，还有个大隐患

高利率下美国GDP大超预期，是用赤字和债务堆出来的高速增长。市场分析指出，美国四季度1美元的GDP增长，是用1.55美元赤字、超2.50美元债务换来的。分析预测如果按照目前的速度发展下去，2024年的赤字将高于2万亿美元。债务方面，美国财政部本月初发布的报告显示，美国联邦债务首次达到34万亿美元。

道指有望再涨24%？研究公司：美联储首次降息后将会发生！

市场研究公司Ned Davis Research分析历史数据，发现在美联储首次降息后的第一年，道指平均上涨15%。但如果降息的同时没有出现经济衰退，这一涨幅甚至会更大，达到24%。本周以来，道指已连续两次刷新历史记录。

还在欢庆标普“五刷记录”？华尔街大多头警告：涨太快了，容易崩！

截至周四美股收盘，标普500指数连续第五个交易日刷新高。华尔街最大的多头之一Ed Yardeni表示，看跌/看涨比率等人气指标正发出看跌信号。他担心股市涨势已经走得太远太快，最终可能重蹈上世纪90年代末的覆辙。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前涨跌不一

“昔日霸主”辉煌不再？英特尔业绩指引远逊预期

昔日半导体霸主$英特尔 (INTC.US)$公布的第四季度财报表现平平，其第一季度财报指引也较为悲观。财报显示，虽然英特尔的PC业务正在复苏，但它在数据中心芯片市场上仍在丢失阵地。瑞穗将目标价从58美元降至55美元，Raymond James将目标价从54美元降至52美元，韦德布什将目标价从45美元降至40美元。截至发稿，该股盘前跌超9%。

特斯拉“死忠粉”动摇了？Wedbush下调目标价：前方是“四级风暴”！

美国知名投行韦德布什表示，$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$的财报电话会议“留给华尔街的答案很少，问题却很多，而且再次令人沮丧”。尽管该行维持了“跑赢大盘”的评级，但将其12个月目标价从350美元下调至315美元，认为电动汽车进一步降价的可能性，以及缺乏具体的利润率和销售指引，对特斯拉来说构成了一场“四级风暴”。

特斯拉在美国召回近20万辆汽车，涉后视摄像头图像显示问题

美国国家公路交通安全管理局发布公告，因后视摄像头图像显示问题，$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$将在美国召回199575辆配备全自动驾驶功能的2023款Model S、Model X和Model Y汽车。根据声明，软件不稳定可能导致后视摄像头图像无法显示。特斯拉已发布OTA软件更新。

美国运通盘前涨超2%，预计2024年收入增长9%-11%

$美国运通 (AXP.US)$盘前涨超2%，四季度营收158亿美元，市场预估159.9亿美元。四季度每股收益2.62美元，市场预估2.65美元。公司预计2024年每股收益12.65-13.15美元，市场预估12.4美元。美国运通预计2024年营收增长9%-11%。

西部数据盘前跌超2%，第二财季云业务收入同比下降13%

$西部数据 (WDC.US)$盘前跌超2%，第二财季净营收30.3亿美元，同比下降2%，分析师预期30亿美元；每股亏损0.69美元，分析师预期每股亏损1.14美元。期内云业务收入为10.71亿美元，同比下降13%。

LVMH财报强劲：经济寒风吹不灭高奢需求

奢侈品集团路威酩轩（$LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMUY.US)$）财报显示，在强劲高奢需求推动下，公司在去年第四季度销售额增长10%，而中国消费者的回归是公司营收增长不可忽视的动力之一。LVMH欧股涨12%，创十五年来最大盘中涨幅

云服务需求上升！亚马逊将投资100亿美元建设数据中心综合体

$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$旗下的云平台Amazon Web Services（AWS）表示，计划投资100亿美元在密西西比州建设两个数据中心综合体，以扩大其云服务能力。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前走弱

美股宏观事历提醒

21:30 美国12月核心PCE物价指数年率

美国12月个人支出月率

美国12月核心PCE物价指数月率

23:00 美国12月成屋签约销售指数月率

次日02:00 美国至1月26日当周石油钻井总数(口)

编辑/Corrine

Global macroscopic

Before Friday's market, the three major indices declined slightly

According to data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US core PCE price index rose 2.9% year on year in December, a new low since March 2021. It is estimated to be 3.0%, compared to the previous value of 3.2%. The US core PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month in December, a new high since September 2023. It is estimated to be 0.2%, compared to the previous value of 0.1%.

After the economic data was released, US short-term interest rate futures fell, and traders reduced their bets on the Fed cutting interest rates.

In addition, US personal spending rose 0.7% month-on-month in December, a new high since September 2023. The estimate was 0.5%, compared to the previous value of 0.2%.

Does US GDP exceed expectations, mean a soft landing? Not necessarily, there is also a big hidden danger

Under high interest rates, US GDP greatly exceeded expectations, and this is a rapid growth built up with deficits and debts. Market analysis indicates that the US GDP growth of 1 US dollar in the fourth quarter was exchanged for a deficit of 1.55 US dollars and more than 2.50 US dollars in debt. The analysis predicts that if development continues at the current pace, the deficit in 2024 will be higher than $2 trillion. On the debt side, a report released by the US Treasury Department at the beginning of this month shows that the US federal debt reached 34 trillion US dollars for the first time.

Is the Dow expected to rise another 24%? Research firm: It will happen after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the first time!

Market research firm Ned Davis Research analyzed historical data and found that in the first year after the Federal Reserve first cut interest rates, the Dow rose an average of 15%. However, if interest rates were cut without a recession, the increase would be even greater, reaching 24%. Since this week, the Dow has broken records twice in a row.

Still celebrating S&P's “Five Brush Record”? Most Wall Street players warn: it's rising too fast, and it's easy to collapse!

As of the close of US stocks on Thursday, the S&P 500 index reached a new high for the fifth consecutive trading day. Ed Yardeni, one of Wall Street's biggest bulls, said that popular indicators such as the bearish/bullish ratio are sending bearish signals. He is worried that the stock market has gone too far and too fast, and that it may eventually repeat the mistakes of the late 90s of the last century.

Hot news

Star Technology's stock had mixed ups and downs before the market

Is the “former hegemon” no longer brilliant? Intel's performance guidance falls far short of expectations

Former semiconductor hegemon$Intel (INTC.US)$The fourth quarter earnings report was published with mediocre results, and its first-quarter earnings guidance was also quite pessimistic. Financial reports show that although Intel's PC business is recovering, it is still losing ground in the data center chip market. Mizuho lowered the target price from $58 to $55, Raymond James lowered the target price from $54 to $52, and Wade Bush lowered the target price from $45 to $40. As of press time, the stock was down more than 9% before the market.

Are Tesla's “die-hard fans” shaken? Wedbush cuts target price: a “level 4 storm” is ahead!

Wade Bush, a well-known American investment bank, said$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The earnings conference call “left Wall Street with few answers, many questions, and once again disheartening.” Although the bank maintained a “outperforming market” rating, it lowered its 12-month target price from $350 to $315, believing that the possibility of further price cuts for electric vehicles and the lack of specific profit margins and sales guidelines constituted a “four-level storm” for Tesla.

Tesla recalls nearly 200,000 cars in the US due to rear-view camera image display issues

The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration issued a notice that due to a problem with the rearview camera image display,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$199575 2023 Model S, Model X, and Model Y cars equipped with fully automated driving will be recalled in the US. According to the statement, software instability may prevent rear-view camera images from being displayed. Tesla has released an OTA software update.

American Express rose more than 2% before the market, and revenue is expected to increase 9%-11% in 2024

$American Express (AXP.US)$It rose more than 2% before the market, with fourth quarter revenue of 15.8 billion US dollars, and the market estimate was 15.99 billion US dollars. Earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $2.62, and the market estimated $2.65. The company expects earnings per share of $12.65-13.15 in 2024, and the market estimates $12.4. American Express expects revenue growth of 9%-11% in 2024.

Western Digital fell more than 2% before the market, and cloud business revenue for the second fiscal quarter fell 13% year on year

$Western Digital (WDC.US)$The pre-market decline was more than 2%. Net revenue for the second fiscal quarter was US$3.03 billion, down 2% year on year. Analysts expected US$3 billion; loss per share was 0.69 US dollars, and analysts expected a loss of 1.14 US dollars per share. During the period, cloud business revenue was US$1,071 million, down 13% year over year.

LVMH's financial report is strong: the cold economic wind will not stop the demand for luxury

The luxury goods group LVT Mohan ($LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMUY.US)$) Financial reports show that, driven by strong luxury demand, the company's sales increased by 10% in the fourth quarter of last year, and the return of Chinese consumers is one of the driving forces that cannot be ignored in the company's revenue growth. LVMH European stocks rose 12%, the biggest intraday gain in 15 years

Demand for cloud services is rising! Amazon to invest $10 billion to build a data center complex

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Amazon Web Services (AWS), its cloud platform, said it plans to invest $10 billion to build two data center complexes in Mississippi to expand its cloud service capabilities.

Focus on China Securities

Popular Chinese securities weakened before the market

US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder

21:30 The annual rate of the US core PCE price index for December

Monthly rate of personal expenditure in the US in December

Monthly rate of the US core PCE price index for December

23:00 Monthly rate of the US existing home contract sales index in December

Total number of oil drills (ports) for the week from the US at 02:00 the next day to January 26

Editor/Corrine

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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