Global macroscopic

• Before Friday's market, the three major indices declined slightly

According to data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US core PCE price index rose 2.9% year on year in December, a new low since March 2021. It is estimated to be 3.0%, compared to the previous value of 3.2%. The US core PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month in December, a new high since September 2023. It is estimated to be 0.2%, compared to the previous value of 0.1%.

After the economic data was released, US short-term interest rate futures fell, and traders reduced their bets on the Fed cutting interest rates.

In addition, US personal spending rose 0.7% month-on-month in December, a new high since September 2023. The estimate was 0.5%, compared to the previous value of 0.2%.

• Does US GDP exceed expectations, mean a soft landing? Not necessarily, there is also a big hidden danger

Under high interest rates, US GDP greatly exceeded expectations, and this is a rapid growth built up with deficits and debts. Market analysis indicates that the US GDP growth of 1 US dollar in the fourth quarter was exchanged for a deficit of 1.55 US dollars and more than 2.50 US dollars in debt. The analysis predicts that if development continues at the current pace, the deficit in 2024 will be higher than $2 trillion. On the debt side, a report released by the US Treasury Department at the beginning of this month shows that the US federal debt reached 34 trillion US dollars for the first time.

• Is the Dow expected to rise another 24%? Research firm: It will happen after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the first time!

Market research firm Ned Davis Research analyzed historical data and found that in the first year after the Federal Reserve first cut interest rates, the Dow rose an average of 15%. However, if interest rates were cut without a recession, the increase would be even greater, reaching 24%. Since this week, the Dow has broken records twice in a row.

• Still celebrating S&P's “Five Brush Record”? Most Wall Street players warn: it's rising too fast, and it's easy to collapse!

As of the close of US stocks on Thursday, the S&P 500 index reached a new high for the fifth consecutive trading day. Ed Yardeni, one of Wall Street's biggest bulls, said that popular indicators such as the bearish/bullish ratio are sending bearish signals. He is worried that the stock market has gone too far and too fast, and that it may eventually repeat the mistakes of the late 90s of the last century.

Hot news

• Star Technology's stock had mixed ups and downs before the market

• Is the “former hegemon” no longer brilliant? Intel's performance guidance falls far short of expectations

Former semiconductor hegemon$Intel (INTC.US)$The fourth quarter earnings report was published with mediocre results, and its first-quarter earnings guidance was also quite pessimistic. Financial reports show that although Intel's PC business is recovering, it is still losing ground in the data center chip market. Mizuho lowered the target price from $58 to $55, Raymond James lowered the target price from $54 to $52, and Wade Bush lowered the target price from $45 to $40. As of press time, the stock was down more than 9% before the market.

• Are Tesla's “die-hard fans” shaken? Wedbush cuts target price: a “level 4 storm” is ahead!

Wade Bush, a well-known American investment bank, said$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The earnings conference call “left Wall Street with few answers, many questions, and once again disheartening.” Although the bank maintained a “outperforming market” rating, it lowered its 12-month target price from $350 to $315, believing that the possibility of further price cuts for electric vehicles and the lack of specific profit margins and sales guidelines constituted a “four-level storm” for Tesla.

• Tesla recalls nearly 200,000 cars in the US due to rear-view camera image display issues

The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration issued a notice that due to a problem with the rearview camera image display,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$199575 2023 Model S, Model X, and Model Y cars equipped with fully automated driving will be recalled in the US. According to the statement, software instability may prevent rear-view camera images from being displayed. Tesla has released an OTA software update.

• American Express rose more than 2% before the market, and revenue is expected to increase 9%-11% in 2024

$American Express (AXP.US)$It rose more than 2% before the market, with fourth quarter revenue of 15.8 billion US dollars, and the market estimate was 15.99 billion US dollars. Earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $2.62, and the market estimated $2.65. The company expects earnings per share of $12.65-13.15 in 2024, and the market estimates $12.4. American Express expects revenue growth of 9%-11% in 2024.

• Western Digital fell more than 2% before the market, and cloud business revenue for the second fiscal quarter fell 13% year on year

$Western Digital (WDC.US)$The pre-market decline was more than 2%. Net revenue for the second fiscal quarter was US$3.03 billion, down 2% year on year. Analysts expected US$3 billion; loss per share was 0.69 US dollars, and analysts expected a loss of 1.14 US dollars per share. During the period, cloud business revenue was US$1,071 million, down 13% year over year.

• LVMH's financial report is strong: the cold economic wind will not stop the demand for luxury

The luxury goods group LVT Mohan ($LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMUY.US)$) Financial reports show that, driven by strong luxury demand, the company's sales increased by 10% in the fourth quarter of last year, and the return of Chinese consumers is one of the driving forces that cannot be ignored in the company's revenue growth. LVMH European stocks rose 12%, the biggest intraday gain in 15 years

• Demand for cloud services is rising! Amazon to invest $10 billion to build a data center complex

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Amazon Web Services (AWS), its cloud platform, said it plans to invest $10 billion to build two data center complexes in Mississippi to expand its cloud service capabilities.

Focus on China Securities

• Popular Chinese securities weakened before the market

US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder

21:30 The annual rate of the US core PCE price index for December

Monthly rate of personal expenditure in the US in December

Monthly rate of the US core PCE price index for December

23:00 Monthly rate of the US existing home contract sales index in December

Total number of oil drills (ports) for the week from the US at 02:00 the next day to January 26

Editor/Corrine