Financial highlights: The company disclosed its 2023 annual results forecast, achieving revenue of 71 billion yuan to 76 billion yuan, an increase of 76%-89% over the previous year; net profit to mother of 9.3 billion yuan to 10.3 billion yuan, an increase of 159%-187% over the previous year.
Net profit after deduction of non-return to mother was 9.15 billion yuan to 10.15 billion yuan, an increase of 170%-200% over the previous year.
Shipments of inverters and energy storage grew rapidly, and full-year results exceeded expectations. The 23-year results forecast a high increase in net revenue and profit, and full-year results exceeded expectations. The company's revenue grew rapidly, mainly due to the rapid increase in shipments of photovoltaic inverters and energy storage systems in the main business. The net profit growth rate is faster than the revenue growth rate, mainly due to brand premiums, product innovation, scale effects, falling freight rates, and exchange earnings. At the same time, lithium carbonate prices have continued to decline since this year, and the slow transmission of terminal product prices may also lead to an increase in gross margin. 23Q4 revenue was 246-29.6 billion yuan, up 38-66%; net profit to mother was 20.8-3.08 billion yuan, -28-7% month-on-month. Q4 revenue increased month-on-month or represented a continuous increase in the company's shipments in the fourth quarter, while Q4's net profit growth rate fell short of the month-on-month revenue growth rate, or was mainly affected by the appreciation of RMB and the increase in freight rates in the fourth quarter.
Growth is expected to slow in 24, but the company's position in the industry is stable. According to Jibang Consulting's forecast, the neutral forecast for new global PV installations in '24 is 474 GW, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and a significant slowdown from the 59% growth rate in '23. Due to the industry's installed demand, the company's shipment growth rate is also expected to slow down in 2024. However, at the same time, the US EIA predicts that in 24 and 25, the US will add 44.7 GW and 54.8 GW of PV installations, respectively, with a compound growth rate of 28.9% in two years. The high installed capacity growth rate in the US market, where the company has an advantage, will help the shipment of the company's core products, inverters and large storage, and stabilize the company's position in the industry.
Optimistic about the long-term development of the company's main business. 1) With its ability to innovate at low cost, the company continuously launches electric energy conversion products with outstanding cost performance advantages. Currently, it has the largest market share in the world. The channel, brand, and product power barriers that the company has established have formed a competitive moat. 2) The company's efforts in various fields such as energy storage systems, wind power converters, and photovoltaic household products. Collaboration in the technology and channels accumulated by the company in the field of inverters will support the common development and flowering of various main businesses.
Profit forecast: The company's net profit for 2023-2025 is expected to be 93.83/100.13/11.334 billion yuan, EPS is 6.32/6.74/7.63 yuan respectively, corresponding to the 2024.1.23 closing price of 91.43 yuan, and PE is 14/14/12, respectively. Maintain the company's “Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations; raw material prices may fluctuate significantly.