Under the heat of snow and ice, the company's data performance on New Year's Day was strong. The 2023-2024 snow season was the first complete snow season in the post-Winter Olympics era. The popularity of snow and ice sports continued to rise, trips on New Year's Day remained strong, and the company's business performance in China was strong. 1) According to a comparable scale, the total turnover of Club Med Club Med Resort in China exceeded the 2023 New Year's Day holiday by about 154%, surpassed the same period in 2019 by about 84%, and the average occupancy rate reached 85%. Among them, the three ice and snow resorts in Beidahu, Yabuli, and Changbaishan reached an average occupancy rate of over 95% from December 29 to 31, while the four resorts in Xianlin, Taicang, Anji, and Yanqing in Nanjing approached or reached full capacity on December 30 and 31. 2) From December 30, 2023 to January 1, 2024, the turnover of Atlantis Sanya exceeded the same period of about 12% in the same period of 2023 and surpassed the same period of about 12% in 2019. It was the highest turnover during the New Year's Day holiday since opening, with an average occupancy rate of 94%.
New projects have been launched one after another, contributing to an increase, and Taicang Alps International Resort ushered in a peak of business during New Year's Day. Since the second half of '23, projects such as the Mediterranean Daylight Ark Nanjing Xianlin Resort, the Mediterranean Daylight Ark Taicang Resort, and Japan's Kiroro Grand have been opened one after another. Among them, Taicang Alps International Resort was grandly opened on November 8, 23. The resort is located in Taicang City, Suzhou, close to Taicang South Railway Station and Shanghai's Jiading District. It is only an hour's drive from central Shanghai. As the largest indoor ski resort in East China, Alps Snow World has an average daily passenger traffic of 3,000 people during New Year's Day, and has had a good performance since opening.
Spring Festival travel trends are improving. Ice and snow, hot springs, and islands are popular themes during the Spring Festival. According to the same schedule, Harbin became a popular tourist destination on the eve of New Year's Day, and it is expected that the popularity of tourism will continue until the Spring Festival holiday. Meanwhile, cities such as Guangzhou, Kunming, Guiyang, and Shenzhen have also entered the top ten most popular domestic destinations during the Spring Festival. According to Ctrip, during the Spring Festival in '24, the number of orders for snow and ice travel products increased more than tenfold year on year, while travel bookings in Sanya and Kunming increased more than 2 times and 6 times, respectively.
Investment advice: Fosun Tourism Culture is one of the leading comprehensive travel groups focusing on leisure and vacation tourism. The data for the beginning of '24 was impressive. Furthermore, in the second half of '23, several incremental projects were opened one after another, and more resorts will be launched in the medium term, so we are optimistic about the company's future growth. Taking into account the pressure on the overall real estate market and the fact that international routes have not yet recovered to before the pandemic in '23, the company's net profit for 23-25 was lowered to 2.3/3.9/53 billion yuan (previous value was 4.7/6.3/82 billion yuan), adjusted to an EBITDA of 34/40/4.4 billion, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuations, declining consumer spending power, new project construction progress falling short of expectations