Incident: On January 22, the company released its 2023 performance forecast. During the period, it is expected to achieve net profit of about 500 million yuan, an increase of 59.55% over the previous year; net profit without deduction to mother is expected to be about 420 million yuan, an increase of 68.59% over the previous year.
The 2023 performance forecast is in line with expectations. Profits achieved rapid growth. The company released the 2023 performance forecast. During the reporting period, it is expected to achieve net profit of about 500 million yuan, an increase of about 59.55% over the previous year, and is expected to achieve net profit without return to mother of about 420 million yuan, an increase of 68.59% over the previous year. According to this estimate, the 23Q4 single quarter is expected to achieve net profit of about 113 million yuan, net profit without deduction to mother of about 76 million yuan, and profit for the fourth quarter to remain stable year-on-year. This sharp increase in performance is mainly due to (1) during the reporting period, the company continued to increase R&D investment and new product development efforts, actively explore the market, expand sales, and have sufficient orders; (2) the company received government subsidies to generate other revenue of about 78.5889 million yuan. In the future, as the pace of downstream scaling accelerates, the company's performance is expected to continue to grow.
Widely used in special fields, steady revenue growth in overseas markets
The company's various projects in the field of special equipment have entered the batch delivery stage. Among them, infrared cameras are widely used in special equipment such as reconnaissance, surveillance, and guidance, including night vision for special vehicles such as tanks and armored vehicles, anti-tank personal portable weapons, and nighttime identification and shooting command systems for special ships. In overseas markets, the company continues to expand its sales network and sales area with advanced infrared thermal imaging technology and product quality. The company's product lines of infrared detectors, movement modules, and application terminals in various fields, including outdoor and industrial temperature measurement, have continued to go overseas, and sales revenue in overseas markets has maintained a steady growth trend in recent years.
Equity incentive amortization expenses have been reduced, and net profit is expected to continue to improve. The company issued stock incentive plans twice in 2020 and 2022, granting 5.5 million shares and 18.16 million shares respectively, accounting for 1.24% and 4.07% of the company's share capital. The main incentives target middle management, technical backbone, and business backbone. According to the above two rounds of equity incentives, the company will need to amortize share payments of about 200 million yuan for the full year of 2023. Compared with about 70 million more in 2022, amortized share payments will be significantly reduced in 2024, management expenses will be reduced accordingly, and net profit is expected to continue to improve.
Fund-raising projects optimize production capacity layout, and consolidate and improve market position
The company issued convertible bonds in February 2023 to raise a total of 1,565 billion yuan. The company raised funds for subsidiaries in the form of loans around its main business. The investment includes an infrared thermal imaging complete machine project and a pilot platform for intelligent photoelectric sensor research and development. The above projects help maintain the company's product advantages in the field of infrared applications and are in line with the company's development strategy. As fund-raising projects are completed one after another, the company can further conduct large-scale and systematic research and development to enhance its core competitiveness and consolidate its market position.
Investment advice and profit forecasting
The company is a leading national high-tech enterprise specializing in the design and manufacturing technology development of special integrated circuits, special chips and MEMS sensors. The infrared business is in a leading position in the industry, and the microwave business layout is beginning to take shape. Considering the accelerated pace of downstream equipment release, the company's performance is expected to reach new heights.
It is estimated that in 2023-2025, the company's net profit will be 504 million yuan, 778 million yuan and 1,179 million yuan, and EPS will be 1.08 yuan, 1.67 yuan, and 2.53 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 34 times, 22 times, and 15 times, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Technology and product development risks; risk of high procurement concentration of some raw materials and contract processing services; risk of overseas business expansion falling short of expectations