Macquarie published a report stating that after raising the capital expenditure budget to 120 billion to 130 billion yuan last year (about 20% higher than the original forecast of 100 billion to 110 billion yuan), this year's capital expenditure budget is about 125 billion to 135 billion yuan. The bank believes that the risk of overspending on CNOOC's capital expenses continues to increase. Considering changes in the company's management and the offshore oil field service supercycle, it is believed that the company's capital expenditure overexpenditure last year was not a one-time occurrence; capital expenditure may increase further this year. The company maintains a reserve replacement rate (RRR) of over 130% this year and plans to increase the number of exploration wells in China's waters by 5% to 214, indicating that the company will continue to actively expand oil and gas reserves and production.

Furthermore, the bank raised CNOOC's capital expenditure forecast by 6.6% to 128 billion yuan last year. Based on unchanged exploration and development costs, capital expenditure forecasts for this year and next two years will increase by 1.5% and 7.5% to 142 billion and 167 billion yuan to reflect higher production growth. The bank believes that with the price of oil in the fourth quarter of last year and the actual capital expenditure of last year, CNOOC's production forecast for this year and next two years increased by 1.5% and 7.5%, leading to a 0% to 5.6% increase in earnings per share forecast for 2023 to 2025. In view of the deterioration in CNOOC's cash flow, the target price was raised by 1% to HK$9, and its “outperforming market” rating was reiterated.