Incidents:

On January 25, 2024, Sansheng Guojian announced that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2023 is 260 million yuan to 320 million yuan, an increase of 427.41% to 549.12% over the previous year. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent company after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was between $180 million and $240 million. Revenue is expected to be 950 million yuan to 1.05 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 15.08% to 27.20% compared with the same period last year. The estimated annual R&D expenses in 2023 are 270 million yuan to 300 million yuan, a decrease of 4.24% to 13.82% compared with the same period last year.

Comment:

The status of dominant departments remains unchanged, and core pipeline revenue has increased. As the first TNF-α inhibitor approved for marketing in China, Yisaipu performed well in the Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, and was officially included in the Medical Insurance Class B program in the Western Medicine section of the National Medical Insurance Drug List in 2017. In March 2020, in order to meet the challenges of competitive products and benefit patients, the company announced that it would adjust the annual treatment cost of Exaipu to around 33,000 yuan, and at the same time actively expand the market and sink to county-level regions. Pre-filled dosage forms are on the market, and revenue has been rising steadily in recent years. Sales of cyptine continued to grow rapidly, fueled by continued increase in hospital coverage and rising penetration rates supported by evidence-based medical evidence.

Specialized in immunization breakthroughs, efficient use of costs, and significant profit growth. The company will focus on investment in immunology research and development in 2023, capitalize the expenses directly related to R&D projects that have entered clinical phase III, and R&D expenses have decreased. Refined and efficient management, reduced management fees and sales expenses. With the support of process improvements, etc., the profit side has increased dramatically, and innovative value has continued to be realized.

The pipeline research and development process is steady and steady, and the immunization sector registration progress is steadily at the forefront of the country. The first patient enrolled in the IL-4Rα monoclonal antibody phase III clinical trial for moderate to severe atopic dermatitis in adults met previous research and development expectations, had good safety and drug resistance, and had great competitive potential. 611 is also currently conducting multiple clinical trials at the same time, including the successful enrollment of all subjects in the Phase II clinical trial of chronic sinusitis with nasal polyps; the first phase II clinical trial of moderate to severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was enrolled; and phase II IND approval for moderate to severe atopic dermatitis in children and adolescents (age 6 years ≤ <18 years) has also been obtained. Psoriatic stage III reached the end, IL-17 declaration progressed to the top three in China; acute gout arthritis stage II reached the main end point, progressing second in the country; severe asthma phase II enrollment was completed, and IL-5 development was at the forefront of the country. Multi-target promotion to achieve the Group's military immunization indications layout. The new pipeline is expected to generate revenue as early as 25 years.

Investment advice: The company's sales volume, smooth research and development. We expect the company's revenue for 23-25 to be 10.30/12.581.407 billion yuan, and the estimated EPS for 23-25 will be 0.47/0.56/0.65 yuan, which will be covered for the first time to give a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: R&D progress falls short of expectations, sales fall short of expectations, policy risks, etc.