Core views
According to the 2023 performance forecast released by the company, it achieved operating revenue of 2,803 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 20.52% over the previous year, and achieved net profit of 576 million yuan to mother, an increase of 30.23% over the previous year. Achieved net profit of 568 million yuan after deduction, an increase of 27.89% over the previous year. The rapid growth in the company's 2023 performance reflects the steady growth of the company's downstream aerospace business, the gradual recovery of the international aerospace business, and higher profit growth than revenue, reflecting the increase in the company's profitability.
It shows that the company has a scale effect, and that the company has maintained a strong competitive position in the industrial chain.
occurrences
According to the 2023 performance forecast released by the company, it achieved operating revenue of 2,803 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 20.52% over the previous year, and achieved net profit of 576 million yuan to mother, an increase of 30.23% over the previous year. Achieved net profit of 568 million yuan after deduction, an increase of 27.89% over the previous year.
Brief review
The rapid growth in the company's 2023 performance reflects the steady growth of the company's downstream aerospace and the gradual recovery of international aerospace business. Higher profit growth than revenue reflects a gradual increase in the company's profitability, which shows that the company has a scale effect and that the company has maintained a strong competitive position in the industrial chain. With the gradual commissioning of the company's fund-raising production line and the gradual mass production of developed models, the company is expected to further improve production efficiency and profitability.
The controlling shareholder of the company is the Aviation Materials Institute, which is mainly engaged in basic research on the application of advanced aviation materials, research on material development and application technology, and engineering technology research. The company has four divisions. The titanium alloy precision casting division and the high temperature alloy casting division mainly supplies military aviation engines. Titanium alloy precision casting includes engine main bearing frames, etc. The products cover the vast majority of current military aircraft engine models in China, and provide support for global engine manufacturers. Superalloy products cover all high-temperature alloy master alloy products mass-produced in China, and advanced grades pre-researched and under development will be mass-produced and applied one after another. The Rubber, Seals, and Transparent Parts Division mainly supplies military aircraft airframes, and the product performance has reached international advanced and domestic leading levels.
Profit forecasting
The company is a leading aeronautical materials company. The technology has reached the leading level in China, and has strong R&D capabilities. It will fully benefit from the steady growth of military aviation aircraft and the localization and replacement of military aircraft engines. In terms of civilian airliners, the company's titanium alloy precision castings, etc. have already entered the global supply chain. As the company's production capacity is built, the company's share of the international aerospace market has further increased. As the localization rate of the domestic large aircraft supply chain increases, the company's related business is expected to gradually enter the domestic large aircraft supply chain. Further enhance the competitiveness of the company's products, thereby bringing inexhaustible impetus to the continuous growth of the company's performance. The company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 is estimated to be $576, 7.40, and 881 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 30.26%, 28.37%, and 19.04%, respectively. The corresponding EPS for 23 to 25 was 1.28, 1.64, and 1.96 yuan, respectively. Corresponding to the current PE share price, it is 37.73 times, 29.39 times, and 24.69 times, respectively, maintaining a “gain” rating.
Risk analysis
1. Delivery of military goods falls short of expectations: The military products industry is highly planned and is greatly affected by the international situation and policy environment. If the external environment changes, the pace of delivery may be greatly affected, causing the company's military revenue to fall short of expectations; 2. Military procurement prices may fall: under the military's requirements for low-cost procurement, military prices may face pressure to reduce prices; 4. The market share of new military models falls short of expectations: If the strength of the company's products falls short of expectations in the next generation of products, the market share of new products may decline;
5. Risk of military upgrades: Unmanned military aircraft may affect the growth expectations of some of the company's businesses.