share_log

大唐新能源(1798.HK):公司盈利回复增长趋势 不确定因素大致反映 上调评级至买入

Datang New Energy (1798.HK): Uncertainties in the return of the company's profit to the growth trend generally reflect the upward rating to purchases

交銀國際 ·  Jan 25

Last year, the wind speed was lower than expected due to climatic factors, and the total output is expected to be 2% lower. In 2023, the company's wind power and photovoltaic power generation capacity was 1.4%/8.8% lower than our expectations, and the annual power generation increased by 7.4% year on year.

We believe that the company's wind power generation in 2023 should be the low base of recent years, and there is a chance of recovering the number of hours used in 2024. Affected by the climate in 2023, the company recorded 3 consecutive year-on-year declines in wind power generation in the 3rd quarter. This is a low-probability event in recent years. As a result, the company's cumulative wind power generation growth rate fell from 17% in the previous 6 months to 7.4% for the whole year. Also, although the company's progress in installing new photovoltaic power generation in 2023 may be more concentrated on completion in December than we expected, the annual power generation capacity still recorded a 49.2% increase.

Electricity prices for the coming year are estimated more conservatively, and plans for additional installed capacity have yet to be broken through. We lowered electricity prices for wind power and photovoltaics by about 1% in 2024 to reflect the expansion of market-based electricity price discounts for wind power and the impact of time-sharing electricity prices on the Internet side of photovoltaic projects. Currently, we maintain the company's forecast of adding 2.2/3.0 gigawatts of wind power in 2024-2025. At the beginning of the year, the company still maintained the target of adding 40 gigawatts of installed capacity in 2025. Compared with our forecast of nearly 21 gigawatts at the end of 2025, there is still a long way to go. In terms of installation planning, we believe that short-term variables may be adjusted due to changes in the company's chairman. The results should be updated as soon as March of this year.

The improvement in ROE compared to previous years should support an increase in valuation and an increase in the rating to buying. In response to power generation and electricity price forecasts, we lowered the company's profit forecast for 2023-25 by 5.6-7.7%. We maintained the company's price-earnings ratio of 6 times (5-year average) as the valuation standard, and the target price was slightly lowered from HK$2.26 to HK$2.20.

As for the company's current 2024 price-earnings ratio and market-account ratio, which is currently 1 standard deviation below the historical average, we believe that compared to 2020, the company's ROE has increased from 8% at the time to 13% expected in 2023, which should support the valuation increase. At the same time, the following factors should be fully reflected in the valuation compression last year: (1) Due to factors such as low operating expenses and impairment returns in 2022, the profit base is estimated to decline year-on-year in 2023; (2) due to 2023 After the interim report, the management changed its attitude towards the acquisition of renewable energy projects to be conservative. Based on the above reasons, we believe that risk factors are fully reflected, and at the same time, the company's profit returned to a growing trend, and the rating was raised to buy.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment