Hot news

• The US GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter far exceeded expectations, and interest rate cuts are expected to rise instead of falling

Thanks to strong consumer spending, the US economy easily surpassed expectations in the fourth quarter, helping the US economy achieve the strongest growth since 2021. The initial annualized quarterly rate of real GDP recorded an increase of 3.3% in the fourth quarter, and the economic growth rate for the full year of 2023 was 2.5%. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on the Fed cutting interest rates. CME's Fed Watch tool shows that the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates in March is 50%.

• Foreign investors are starting to look bullish! Co-founder of Gavekal: Chinese stocks provide the world's most valuable investment opportunity

After a poor start to the Chinese market this year, some overseas institutions saw a rare buying window. Charles Gave, co-founder of Gavekal Group, said in a recent report on Wednesday (January 24) that the Chinese stock market now provides the world's most valuable investment opportunity. Furthermore, Qiaoshui, the world's largest hedge fund, recently told investors that the company is “moderately bullish” on the Chinese stock market.

• New home sales in the US exceeded expectations in December. Annual sales increased for the first time in three years, and housing prices fell continuously for four months compared to the previous year

New home sales in the US were 664,000 per annualized in December, higher than the forecast of 649,000 units. The pre-November value improved from 590,000 units; in December, new home sales increased 8% month-on-month, with an expected increase of 10%, and a decrease of 12.2% before November. The median price of new homes fell year on year for the fourth consecutive month in November. According to the analysis, along with the decline in mortgage interest rates, the new housing market has gained some momentum, and the prospects for the real estate market are becoming brighter.

• The ECB has kept interest rates unchanged for the third time in a row. Lagarde: Too early to discuss interest rate cuts

On Thursday (January 25) local time, the ECB once again kept interest rates unchanged, as expected by the market, and reiterated that it will keep interest rates high for a long enough period of time. The ECB acknowledged that inflation had slowed, but gave no hint as to when to cut interest rates. At the press conference after the interest rate decision, ECB President Lagarde said that the ECB Governing Council believes it is too early to discuss interest rate cuts.

Resumption of US stock trading

• S&P hit another record high. Chip giants Nvidia and AMD even reached new highs. After Tesla's performance fell by more than 12%, dragging down the NASDAQ

On Thursday (January 25), the three major US stock indices collectively closed up, and the Dow and S&P both closed at record highs.

Major technology stocks had mixed ups and downs. Microsoft rose 0.57%, and Microsoft's market capitalization officially exceeded 3 trillion US dollars. At the same time, it also surpassed Apple, which fell 0.17%, and once again became the most valuable listed company in the world. This is also the first time that US stocks “had two companies with a market capitalization of 3 trillion dollars at the same time after closing.”

Google C rose 2.19%, Nvidia rose 0.42%, Meta rose 0.63%, and AMD rose 1.14%. Stock prices all closed at record highs; Tesla's post-performance decline dragged down the NASDAQ index by more than 12%.

Popular Chinese securities had mixed ups and downs. New Oriental rose more than 6%, Good Future rose more than 5%, JD rose more than 1%, Pinduoduo, NIO, and Ideal Auto fell slightly, and Xiaopeng Motors, Alibaba, and Baidu fell nearly 2%.

• After Tesla's results, it plummeted by more than 12%, and the bears have made a profit of 3.45 billion US dollars so far this year

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Contrary to normal in the newly released quarterly earnings report, few details were provided on future sales prospects, and no specific delivery targets were specified. According to data from analysis company Ortex, Tesla shorters have made a profit of 3.45 billion US dollars so far this year, making it the most profitable shorting deal in the US. Some analysts say that if Tesla's sales growth and profit margins weaken further, the valuation may become difficult to justify. By the close, Tesla had plummeted by more than 12%.

• The AI trend continues to blow: IBM pulls Dayang to a new high, and Nvidia and Google continue their gains

With the release of the latest US GDP data on Thursday, seeing that the fundamentals are safe, the recently strong AI sector of US stocks has once again entered a state of excitement in full bloom.$IBM Corp (IBM.US)$The financial report also saw favorable AI, and the stock price reached a record high;$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$Reached a new high and reached a cloud service agreement with Hugging Face; chip duo$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$,$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$Even new highs.

• Intel's first-quarter results guidance fell far short of expectations. The data center business was poor, and the position of the older brother could not be guaranteed. After the market, it plummeted 10%

$Intel (INTC.US)$The fourth quarter earnings report released after the market on Thursday showed that although fourth-quarter revenue and earnings per share were higher than expected, first-quarter results guidance fell far short of analysts' expectations. Furthermore, data center revenue for the fourth quarter was US$4 billion, down 10% year on year, below analysts' average expectations of US$4.08 billion, showing that Intel was unable to defend its position as the industry's biggest player. As of press release, Intel plummeted by more than 10% after the market.

• Apple's historic concession in the EU! Fees have been reduced, downloads from outside the app store are allowed, and browsers and payment systems have all changed

Under the anti-monopoly pressure of regulation,$Apple (AAPL.US)$Make historic changes in the EU market. This reform will allow users to download software from outside of the Apple App Store for the first time. People will also be able to use other payment systems, and it will be easier to choose a new default web browser. Apple drastically lowered the EU App Store margin to 17%-10%. Apple's important service revenue will be hurt. Shares closed down on Thursday.

• Microsoft will cut 1,900 Activision Blizzard and Xbox employees

$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Activision Blizzard and Xbox laid off around 1,900 workers this week. Although Microsoft is mainly cutting Activision Blizzard employees, some Xbox and ZeniMax employees will also be affected by the layoffs. The number of layoffs accounts for about 8% of the total number of people in Microsoft's gaming division, which has a total of about 22,000 employees.

• Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft face US FTC investigation over artificial intelligence deal

As part of an institutional investigation announced by the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) on Thursday,$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$und$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$The agency must be provided with information on its investments and partnerships with artificial intelligence startups Anthropic and OpenAI. The FTC said it has issued subpoenas to these companies to gather information on how developments in artificial intelligence are affecting the competitive landscape. The survey focused on investments totaling more than $19 billion by Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. FTC Chairman Lina Khan said at a public seminar on Thursday that the agency is closely watching the industry and warned that AI companies “cannot use innovation as an excuse to break the law.” “There is no exemption from artificial intelligence in the legal text,” she said.

Top 20 US stock turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

• Beishui rushed to raise top Chinese stocks such as CNOOC, and sold Tencent for more than HK$1.1 billion

On January 25 (Thursday), Southbound made a net purchase of HK$1,817 billion in Hong Kong stocks.

$CNOOC (00883.HK)$,$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$,$PETROCHINA (00857.HK)$Received net purchases of HK$336 million, HK$290 million and HK$253 million respectively;

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$PING AN (02318.HK)$,$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$Net sales were HK$1,124 million, HK$110 million, and HK$71.92 million respectively.

• Domestic online game versions were released in January 2024, and a total of 115 games were approved by Tencent and other companies

The State Press and Publication Administration released approval information for domestic online games in January. A total of 115 games were approved, including$TENCENT (00700.HK)$Its “Hot Blood American Basketball”,$Shenzhen Zqgame (300052.SZ)$Its “Magical Warfare”,$37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group (002555.SZ)$Its “Guests Please Stay” etc. are on the list.

Today's attention

Keywords：US core PCE price index

In terms of economic data, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for December will be announced at 21:30 Beijing time.

PCE in December last year was the biggest focus of the week. As the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about, the core PCE fell to 3.2% in November last year, the lowest level since April 2021. The agency expects the latest PCE to slow further to 2.9%, falling back beyond expectations or re-boosting the prospects for the Fed to cut interest rates in March.

However, some Federal Reserve officials are cautious in their recent statements, believing that it is too early to discuss easing, and that a premature shift may bring back previous anti-inflation efforts.

Futubull Chen read:

A lot of people are always fidgety because of anxiety. Success requires patience, but when the time comes, you must do your best.

—Charlie Munger

Editor/Somer