Incident: The company announced the performance forecast. It is expected to achieve operating income of about 1,232 million yuan in 2023, an increase of about 34%; net profit due to mother for the full year of 23 is expected to increase by 69 million yuan to 148 million yuan, an increase of about 87% year on year; net profit without return to mother is expected to be about 102 million yuan in 23, an increase of 240% year on year.
Comment: Net interest rate declined from '22 after restoring equity incentive payment fees in '23. Judging that it was mainly affected by product structure and initial cost pressure on subsidiary operations, etc., and it is expected that it will continue to rise steadily in the future. According to the company's performance forecast, 23Q4 achieved revenue of 490 million yuan, an increase of 23% and 62%, respectively; 23Q4 achieved net profit to mother of 110 million yuan, an increase of 7.8% and 424%, respectively. On the profit side, after restoring the equity incentive fee (the equity incentive fee for 22-23 was 160 million yuan and 80 million yuan, not considering tax), the net profit returned to the mother for 22 and 23 years after the restoration of the equity incentive fee was 2.42 billion yuan and 232 million yuan, respectively, and the net interest rates returned to mother after restoration were 26% and 19%. Based on the results of the first three quarters, the phased background of the company's main aerospace business, and the current operating status, etc., we believe that the net interest rate decline after restoration is large, or is mainly related to product restructuring (such as changes in the pace of confirmation of aerospace revenue with phased high margin), phased cost pressure in the initial operation of the company's subsidiaries, and the impact of the pace of accounts receivable repayment on credit impairment losses. However, in terms of medium- to long-term growth, the company completed a fixed increase in 23 years to expand production capacity for 3D printed structural parts and raw materials. Among them, the new 3D printed structural parts machines will be mainly oversized metal printing equipment, which will further improve the company's batch printing capabilities to meet the batch needs of the aerospace sector and potential civil applications.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: Considering the company's fixed growth factors, etc., we expect the company's EPS to be 0.77/1.98/3.29 yuan/share in 2023-25, respectively. Considering the company's advantages in the entire industry chain, as well as aerospace growth and potential broad civil space, combined with comparable company valuations, the company will be given a PE valuation of 50 times in 24 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 99.08 yuan/share, maintaining a “gain” rating.
Risk warning: increased production capacity to absorb risks; downstream concentration, etc.; increased competition risks, etc.