Key points of investment

Nuoli Co., Ltd.: Leading export enterprise of intelligent logistics systems. The electric forklift strategy continues to promote China's leading intelligent logistics system enterprise, forklift+system integrated two-wheel drive. The company's main business includes:

1) Intelligent intelligent manufacturing equipment: mainly including large trucks (Class I and II forklifts), small trucks (Class III forklifts - electric walking storage forklifts, Class VIII - manual and semi-powered forklifts), electric tractors, AGV forklifts, etc.; 2) Smart logistics systems: mainly developed through the wholly-owned subsidiary Zhongding integration and SAVOYE in France.

The 2015 (listing) -2022 geometric average of the company's ROE (weighted) was 14%. The CAGR of the company's revenue and net profit for 2015-2022 was 29% and 21%; revenue and net profit to mother increased 14% and 23% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2023, and gross profit margin and net profit margin were 21% and 6.7%. 1) Intelligent manufacturing equipment: The share of revenue in 2022 was 50%, up 18% year-on-year. The estimated revenue CAGR for 2023-2025 is about 23%. 2) Smart logistics system: The share of revenue in 2022 was 49%, up 10% year-on-year. The estimated revenue CAGR for 2023-2025 is about 11%.

Leading high-quality export enterprise, 2023H1 accounts for nearly 60% of overseas revenue. 2023H1's overseas revenue accounted for about 59%, up about 2% year on year; domestic revenue accounted for about 41%, up about 14% year on year.

Forklift business: Forklift exports continue to be booming, large forklift strategies advance, product structure optimization 1) Forklift industry: Overseas demand continues to be strong, and domestic demand is expected to gradually recover. 1) Overall: Forklift sales in 2023 were 1,173,773 units, up 12% year on year; of these, 99,670 forklifts were sold in December, up 31% year on year; 2) Exports: In 2023, the export sales volume was 405,405 units, up 12% year on year; of these, export sales volume in December was 38,343 units, up 16% year on year. 3) Domestic: Domestic sales of forklifts in 2023 were 768,368 units, up 12% year on year; of these, domestic sales in December were 61,327 units, up 43% year on year.

2) Nuoli Co., Ltd.: A high-quality export forklift enterprise, actively promoting the strategic export logic line for large forklifts: a leading export enterprise, which is expected to benefit from high overseas demand for forklifts. According to our estimates, 1) Overseas: The company's intelligent manufacturing equipment business is expected to account for about 74% of overseas revenue in 2023, and the CAGR of overseas revenue is expected to be about 24% in 2023-2025; 2) Domestic: The domestic revenue of the company's intelligent manufacturing equipment business is expected to account for about 26% in 2023, and the domestic revenue CAGR is expected to be about 18% in 2023-2025.

Product structure optimization: Actively promote the large forklift strategy and continuously optimize the product structure. 1) Big car strategy: The company actively formulates and promotes large vehicle strategies, focusing on resources to actively expand large vehicle production capacity. 2) Capacity expansion: In March 2023, the company announced that it would sign an agreement with the Changxing Economic and Technological Development Zone Management Committee to purchase land to invest in the construction of a new energy forklift project, with an annual output of 50,000 units (30,000 units in the first phase). 3) Big cars are expected to lead growth: According to our estimates, the company's large vehicle revenue is expected to account for about 32% of the intelligent manufacturing equipment business revenue in 2023, and the company's large vehicle revenue CAGR is expected to be about 51% in 2023-2025, of which overseas and domestic revenue is expected to be about 54% and 42%.

Intelligent logistics system: There are plenty of orders in hand, Zhongding Integration+France's SAVOYE join hands 1) Ongoing orders: The company has sufficient orders in hand. As of 2023Q1, the company's smart logistics integrated system business has orders of 6.150 billion yuan (excluding tax), an increase of 6% over the previous year.

2) Zhongding Integrated: the largest domestic stacker supplier. 2023H1 net profit was 48,146,900 yuan, up 50% year-on-year. Renewable energy accounts for 78% of orders in 2022. In the future, while maintaining its leading position in the new energy industry, Zhongding Integrated is expected to actively explore the non-new energy market and open up market space.

3) SAVOYE, France: Europe's leading smart warehousing and logistics system solution provider. Affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, supply chains were limited and raw material costs were high, and net profit fell 30% year over year. As the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict weakens, profitability is expected to gradually improve. 2023H1 net profit is 975,600 yuan (2022H1: -4.826,500 yuan).

Profit forecasting and valuation

The company is expected to achieve net profit of RMB 5.0, 620 million and 750 million yuan respectively in 2023-2025, up 24%, 23%, and 21% year-on-year (CAGR is 22% in 2023-2025); the corresponding PE is 9, 7, and 6 times. The closing price on January 24, 2024 is expected to correspond to the 2024 PE valuation 7x, which is lower than the industry average. Maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: risk of exchange rate fluctuations; exports falling short of expectations; risk of price fluctuations of raw materials; risk of new orders falling short of expectations.