Event: The company released its 23-year performance forecast
1) Year 23: Net profit due to mother is estimated to be between 3 and 33 billion yuan, an increase of 72%-89% year on year, and net profit without return to mother of 2.2 to 250 million yuan, an increase of 62%-84% year on year.
2) Single Q4: It is expected to achieve net profit of 133-160 million yuan, an increase of 133%-188% over the previous year, and achieve net profit without return to mother of 0.6-0.9 million yuan, an increase of 35%-99% over the previous year.
Comment: The increase in profitability is mainly due to the increase in revenue in the current period, product structure optimization, cost reduction and efficiency 1) The company actively promoted online channel transformation and had a good grasp of the annual marketing rhythm. It is estimated that revenue will increase by more than 30%. Among them, the Marumi brand's content e-commerce represented by Douyin Kuaishou grew by more than 100%, and the second brand PL, Love Fire, grew by more than 100%.
2) The company firmly divides products, implements a smart single product strategy, optimizes the product structure, and reduces costs and improves efficiency.
Investment advice:
The company adheres to cultural self-confidence, maintains strategic strength, stabilizes and strengthens the effectiveness of online transformation, continues to focus on the main business management, firmly implement the large single product strategy, consolidate the brand mentality of Marumi Eye Care Expert+Anti-Aging Master, penetrate PL Lianhuo's high-quality minimalist makeup mentality, change organizational optimization structure to improve efficiency, and anchor long-term healthy development. It is expected that the company's profitability will continue to improve as the company's brand mentality is strengthened.
Based on the restoration of the company's profitability, net profit due to mother in 2023-2025 was raised from RMB29/345/428 million yuan to RMB314/4.22/527 million yuan. The corresponding PE was 39x/29x/23x respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning: The risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, the risk of falling short of expectations, the risk of increased market competition, industry policy risks, and performance forecasts are only preliminary accounting results. Please refer to the official 23 annual report