The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report saying that with the rise of overseas e-commerce, Chinese companies are steadily seizing opportunities to go overseas. According to Emarketer, the scale of China's cross-border e-commerce exports increased from 2.2 to 6.6 trillion yuan in 2017-2022 (CAGR of 25.1%), and is expected to reach 10.4 trillion yuan in 2025 (CAGR of 16.4% in 23-25). Currently, China's light industry enterprises coexist in multiple models of product going+supply chain going+brand going overseas. The bank believes that companies with leading sales volume on the Amazon platform and the first to launch an emerging platform have both short-term explosive power and long-term moats, and that overseas enterprises with a compliant+multi-platform layout are more resilient to risks.

Recommended targets: Henglin Co., Ltd. (603661.SH), Yongyi Co., Ltd. (603600.SH), Zhiou Technology (301376.SZ); Recommended attention: Dream Lily (603313.SH), Jiuqi (300994.SZ), Lego Co., Ltd. (300729.SZ), etc.

Guosheng Securities's views are as follows:

Industry: Overseas e-commerce is rising, and Chinese companies are steadily seizing overseas opportunities.

According to Emarketer, global e-commerce sales increased from US$1.16 trillion to US$5.08 trillion in 2014-2021 (CAGR of 23.5% in 14-21), the US e-commerce penetration rate is expected to rise from 15.6% to 20.6% in 2023-2027, and the market size will reach US$1.72 trillion (CAGR of 10.6% in 22-27). Chinese enterprises are seizing opportunities and actively developing cross-border e-commerce. According to Emarketer, the scale of China's cross-border e-commerce exports increased from 2.2 to 6.6 trillion yuan (CAGR of 25.1%) in 2017-2022, and is expected to reach 10.4 trillion yuan in 2025 (CAGR of 16.4% in 23-25).

Amazon has a leading position in the world, and emerging cross-border e-commerce platforms such as Temu, Shein, and TikTok are rapidly rising.

GMV has grown rapidly since the launch of Temu, Shein, and TikTokShop, which has had a certain impact on Amazon. Temu adopts a full hosting model+fission marketing approach, suitable for factory sellers with strong supply chain capabilities, TikTok self-operation is suitable for enterprises with overseas operation capabilities, full hosting is suitable for factory sellers, Amazon is suitable for enterprises with strong comprehensive capabilities, and is also an important layout platform for big sales.

The seller landscape is in full bloom, and future brand sellers and supply chain sellers are each showing their ingenuity.

The core competition of the full hosting model is production costs, no commission/advertising/execution costs, and low profitability. The core competition of the self-operating model is operation ability & marketing ability. Commissies/advertising/contract execution costs constitute the main expenses, with high profit quality and excellent corporate profitability. The brand effect of branded sellers is gradually showing, and profits on the factory side, platform side, warehousing & logistics side, and consumer side will all flow to brands with bargaining power. The scale effect of supply chain sellers is prominent, and they have a lot of room to reduce their own costs, but they may face a decline in ASP due to loss of pricing power.

Risk warning: Overseas demand recovery falls short of expectations, policy risk, risk of abnormal cost fluctuations.