The company issued a performance forecast, and the annual performance improved significantly. In 2023, the company expects to achieve net profit of 6800 to 78 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.90% to 125.85%; it is expected to deduct non-net profit of 41-49 million yuan, an increase of 80.52% to 115.74% year-on-year. Looking at a single quarter, 23Q4 expects to achieve net profit of 245.955 billion yuan to 345.955 billion yuan, and is expected to deduct non-net profit of 1431.31 to 223.131 billion yuan. Overall, in the context of the rapid development of the downstream market, the company actively enriches its product range and application fields, continues to increase its competitiveness, continues to expand its sales scale, and its annual performance has improved significantly.
The 800V penetration rate inflection point is clear, driving demand for silicon carbide. There is a marked trend of upgrading electric vehicles to 800V & silicon carbide. The sales price of related models has dropped to the 200,000-250,000 range. There is still a possibility of further decline in the future, and the market continues to expand. As the 800V penetration rate reaches an inflection point, silicon carbide models will enter a period of high speed emission, which in turn will drive the demand for silicon carbide to increase.
Deeply responding to industry trends, technology & capacity upgrades provide growth momentum. As a leading supplier of silicon carbide long crystal furnaces, the company deeply binds existing customers with customized solutions and actively expands the market to develop new customers. As the 8-inch silicon carbide substrate upgrade trend gradually became clear, according to the company's investor relations activity record, the company has provided customers with 8-inch and 6/8-inch compatible equipment in batches, and the value of a single device has increased by more than 30%. In the context of domestic substrate manufacturers actively expanding production, after the company headquarters and R&D center reach production in 2024, the total production capacity of the company will reach about 1,400 units, which can meet customer production expansion needs. As the company's equipment is upgraded and iterated and production capacity is released, the room for growth will be further opened up.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's revenue for 23-25 is estimated to be 416, 8.23, and 1,259 million yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother is 0.72, 1.54, and 239 million yuan. Considering that the company is the local leader in silicon carbide long-crystal furnaces, it is expected to accelerate growth in the context of increased silicon carbide penetration rate, maintain a reasonable value of 49.95 yuan/share, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Risk of falling product demand due to downstream industry development falling short of expectations; risk of self-production/self-developed supply models increasing industry competition; risk of customer business development falling short of expectations.