产能充足，将长期受益于流感疫苗接种率的提升：中国目前流感疫苗接种率仅为3%左右，远低于欧美（美国2021 至2022 流感季中，6 个月以上人群接种率约为51%，德国2020 年超过30%，新西兰2021 至2022 流感季超过23.9%）。我们认为随着近几年流感疫情的频发将逐步提升居民流感疫苗接种意识，我们预计公司将会逐步受益。从产能来看，目前拥有6 个流感疫苗车间，具备年产1 亿剂四价流感疫苗的产能储备，相较竞争对手普遍在3000 万份产能，具备更大的增长弹性。Conclusions and recommendations:
Company performance: The company released a performance forecast. The company's net profit in 2023 is estimated to be 750 million to 950 million yuan, YOY +44.3% to 82.8%, net profit after deduction of 650 million to 850 million yuan, and YOY +43.9% to 88.2%, which is basically in line with expectations. According to this estimate, the company's net profit for Q4 in a single quarter was 120 million yuan to 320 million yuan, an increase of about 7 to 20 times over the previous year. The main reason is that 22Q4 had a lower base period due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The influenza epidemic returned in the second half of the year, and influenza vaccine sales were good throughout the year: according to batch issuance data from the Central Inspection Institute, the company issued 115 batches of influenza vaccine in 2023, an increase of about 12% over the previous year, including 109 batches of quadrivalent influenza vaccine, an increase of 42% over the previous year. The quadrivalent vaccine is growing well, mainly due to the concurrent outbreak of influenza A and B during the 23Q4 influenza epidemic. Residents are more in demand for the quadrivalent influenza vaccine, which covers both influenza A and B. Furthermore, competitor Kindick stopped production in 2023 due to torrential rain, and the Hualan vaccine also benefited from this.
Adequate production capacity will benefit from an increase in influenza vaccination rates for a long time: the current influenza vaccination rate in China is only about 3%, far lower than in Europe and America (in the US 2021 to 2022 influenza season, the vaccination rate for people over 6 months is about 51%, Germany is over 30% in 2020, and New Zealand exceeds 23.9% during the 2021-2022 influenza season). We believe that with the frequency of influenza outbreaks in recent years, residents' awareness of influenza vaccination will gradually be raised, and we expect the company to gradually benefit. In terms of production capacity, it currently has 6 influenza vaccine workshops and has production capacity reserves to produce 100 million doses of quadrivalent influenza vaccine per year. Compared with competitors, which generally have a production capacity of 30 million doses, it has greater growth flexibility.
The equity incentive plan guarantees growth: The restricted stock assessment requirements in the company's 2022 equity incentive plan are 40%, 80%, and 100% increases in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, compared to 2021. Based on this calculation, the absolute amounts of the company's 2023-2025 net profit assessment requirements need to reach 8.2 billion, 1.05 billion, and 1.17 billion yuan respectively. We believe that the equity incentive plan will help guarantee the company's future performance growth.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: We expect the company to record net profit of 930 million yuan, 1.10 billion yuan, 1.23 billion yuan, YOY +78.2%, +19.0%, 11.8%, EPS of 1.54 yuan, 1.84 yuan, and 2.05 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE is 15X, 13X, and 11X respectively. The stock price has been undervalued after recent adjustments, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Vaccine sales fall short of expectations, R&D progress falls short of expectations
