业绩符合预期，公司流感疫苗市场地位稳固。2023 年公司共取得流感疫苗批签发94 批次，批签发批次数量居国内首位，其中四价流感疫苗批签发88 批，三价流感疫苗6 批。根据公司历史批签发情况估算，预计批签发支数约为2500 万支左右，其中四价约为2350 万支，三价约为150 万支，结合公司历史利润水平和销量情况，我们预计2023 年公司流感疫苗销量约为2000-2100 万支，资产减值损失相比2022 年有较大改善，整体利润水平与2020 年接近。Incidents:
The company released the 2023 annual report performance forecast. It is expected to achieve net profit of 750 million to 950 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.33%-82.82%, after deducting net profit of 650 million to 850 million yuan, an increase of 43.91% to 88.19% over the previous year, and the performance is in line with expectations.
Comment:
The performance was in line with expectations, and the company's position in the influenza vaccine market was stable. In 2023, the company obtained 94 batches of influenza vaccine batches, which ranked first in China. Among them, 88 batches of quadrivalent influenza vaccine were issued and 6 batches of trivalent influenza vaccine were issued. According to estimates of the company's historical batch issuance situation, it is estimated that the number of batches issued is about 25 million, of which the fourth price is about 23.5 million, and the third price is about 1.5 million. Combined with the company's historical profit level and sales volume, we expect the company to sell about 20-21 million influenza vaccines in 2023. Asset impairment losses have improved greatly compared to 2022, and the overall profit level is close to 2020.
The current level of influenza activity is still high, and the 2024 influenza vaccine market is expected to remain in high demand.
According to data from the National Influenza Center, in the second week of 2024 (January 8 to January 14), the ILI% reported by China's southern provincial sentinel hospital was 8.7%, and the ILI% reported by the northern provincial sentinel hospital was 6.3%, which is still high and higher than the same period in previous years; in addition, the positive influenza virus rate of samples tested by the Southern Influenza Surveillance Network laboratory was 48.5%, and 33.5% in the north. At present, the incidence of influenza virus is still at a high level of activity. In 2023, strains such as H1N1, H3N2, and Victoria showed an upward trend. Compared with only one or two major popular strains in previous years, the transmission pattern of the influenza virus in 2023 is more complex and varied. We think this is not unrelated to the overall decline in immunity in the domestic population. However, influenza vaccination is still an important means of preventing the spread of the influenza virus. Driven by the high level of influenza prevalence in 2023, it is expected that public demand for influenza vaccine will still increase greatly in 2024.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's 2023-2025 revenue of 28.25/35.63/4140 million, net profit to mother of 881/11.13/1.292 billion yuan, EPS of 1.47/1.85/2.15 yuan, corresponding PE 16/12/11 times. Considering that the company's current valuation level is lower than the industry average, and the company's business still has great potential for growth, we maintain a “buy” rating for the company.
Risk warning: Product sales fall short of expectations, risk of asset impairment.