The company announced its 2023 annual results forecast. In 2023, the company expects to achieve net profit of 215-240 million yuan, +5735.10% to 6413.60% year-on-year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 225 million yuan to 245 million yuan, reversing the year-on-year loss of 245-270 million yuan. Among them, Q4 is expected to achieve net profit of 319.20 to 28.192 million yuan, reversing the year-on-year loss of 2619.54 to 51.1954 million yuan; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 877.91 to 337.791 million yuan, reversing the year-on-year loss of 3964.32 to 64.642 million yuan. The company's performance continued to pick up in '23. We are optimistic about the increase in performance that subsequent transportation optimization and new project construction will contribute to the company, and maintain the rating of increasing holdings.
Key points to support ratings
The tourism market is recovering rapidly, and the company's performance continues to pick up. In 2023, the company expects to achieve net profit of 215-240 million yuan, +5735.10% to 6413.60% year-on-year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 225 million yuan to 245 million yuan, reversing a year-on-year loss of 245 to 270 million yuan. Among them, Q4 is expected to achieve net profit of 319.20 to 28.192 million yuan, reversing the year-on-year loss of 2619.54 to 51.1954 million yuan; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 877.91 to 337.791 million yuan, reversing the year-on-year loss of 3964.32 to 64.642 million yuan.
The number of visitors received has clearly rebounded, and various business sectors have steadily recovered. 1) Ropeway: In 2023, the company's three ropeways received a total of 6.121 million visitors, +215.67%. Among them, Yulong Snow Mountain Ropeway received 3.162,200 visitors, +143.20%; Yunshanping Ropeway received 2.5774 million visitors, +346.89%; Yak Niuping Ropeway received 38.15 million visitors, +514.46% year over year.
2) Hotels: Lijiang Hefu Hotel Co., Ltd. achieved revenue of 148 million yuan, +71.74% year-on-year.
3) Performance: Impression Lijiang achieved revenue of 138 million yuan, +383.56% year-on-year.
Construction of the new project is progressing steadily, and transportation outside Shangri-La has been significantly optimized. The Ganhaizi Distribution Center project was put into operation, cooperating with the Yulong Snow Mountain Tourist Comprehensive Service Center to guarantee visitors a multi-faceted travel experience.
The Lixiang High Speed Rail was officially opened to traffic in November 2023. Lijiang to Shangri-La can be reached as fast as 1 hour and 18 minutes, which is conducive to driving the development of tourism resources along the route and helping to increase the occupancy rate of the company's Shangri-La Hotel. The company's Lugu Lake Mosuo Town Phase II Performing Arts is currently creating programs and optimizing construction plans. The Lugu Lake Indigo Hotel is currently carrying out interior decoration and landscaping construction; the Yakniuping Tourist Ropeway renovation and expansion project, a major provincial project, is expected to help the main business increase revenue.
valuations
The company's tourism resources are of high quality, and the construction of supporting service facilities is gradually being improved. We are optimistic about the increase brought about by supply-side optimization. We maintain our previous forecast for the 23-25 EPS of 0.44/0.47/0.53 yuan, and the corresponding price-earnings ratio is 18.5/17.3/15.3 times. Maintain an increase in holdings rating.
The main risks faced by ratings
Market competition risks, new project construction cycle risks, and force majeure risks such as natural disasters.