Financial Services Association, January 24 (Reporter Cui Ming) The film market is about to face an important annual “big test” — the Spring Festival Festival. There are already 8 new movies scheduled, including “Flying Fast Life 2,” “Hot and Hot,” “Hot and Hot,” “Let's Rock the Sun,” “Mr. Red Carpet,” “Below the Eight Commandments,” and “Breaking the Battle.” Industry insiders told the Financial Federation reporter that this year's Spring Festival film list was high in “comedy,” and there were lots of sequels and IP works. The final box office performance was “first choice” for viewers, and the final box office performance depended on the film's quality and word-of-mouth situation.

Currently, although pre-sales of the Spring Festival program have not yet started, according to the Cat Eye Pro Edition, “Flying Spur Life 2,” which was produced by Chinese Film (600977.SH) and invested by Hengdian Film and Television (603103.SH), reached 519,000 people, and is currently at the top of the Spring Festival program. “Article 20”, directed by Zhang Yimou, and “Hot Hot and Hot Hot”, which is controlled by Xinli Media under Reading Group (00772.HK), ranked second and third with 290,000 and 383,000 people who wanted to watch, respectively. These three new films have already locked in the first tier of the Spring Festival film list.

“The Spring Festival program has the strongest family fun aspect throughout the year. Basically, no less than one comedy film is scheduled every year, so the high comedy content is not an exception, but what is special about this year is that the top three movies (“Life at Speed 2,” “Article 20,” and “Hot and Hot”) all have comedic elements.” Yin Tengyu, a senior analyst at the Cat's Eye Research Institute, told reporters.

Specifically, “Flying at the Speed of Life 2” had not only the backing of director Han Han's previous work, but also the box office appeal guarantee of lead actor Shen Teng, and was very popular before the screening. As Zhang Yimou's Third World War Spring Festival work, “Article 20” brings together many popular actors such as Lei Jiayin, Ma Li, and Zhao Liying, and the audience is also highly anticipated. “Hot and Hot” aroused the audience's curiosity about “Jia Ling lost 100 pounds for the character,” and the Spring Festival film “Hello, Li Huanying”, directed by director Jia Ling, still ranks third in the box office in Chinese film history.

The luxurious lineup definitely helped the Spring Festival box office. Yin Tengyu said that the big market on the first day of the Spring Festival program was definitely mainly supported by the top three movies, but the subsequent market performance still depends on the word-of-mouth performance of all the films after they are screened. Many of the previous Spring Festival box office winners were not “blockbusters” before they were screened, and even some films failed to reach the top three on the first day of their release, yet they were able to fight back to the Spring Festival top spot with their outstanding reputation.

Currently, third-party media such as the comprehensive movie Winter and Poison Milk Film are forecasting a total box office of 2.2.5 billion yuan; “Article 20” is 1,88—2.1 billion yuan; and “Life at the Speed 2” is 15-20 billion yuan.

Yin Tengyu told the reporter that the number of valid days during the Spring Festival holiday this year (1st to 8th) is 2 days longer than in previous years (1st to 6th), so the schedule can accumulate 2 more days of holiday box office, so there is a greater chance of surpassing last year's Spring Festival box office, but the final performance still depends on the quality and word-of-mouth performance of the films released this year.

With a total box office of 6.762 billion yuan last year, the Spring Festival program was the second-highest grossing in Chinese film history. Compared to last year, there were no blockbusters with industrial special effects “sitting in town” this year, which also brought a hint of uncertainty about who would win first place in the box office.

“Currently, if you want to watch the three films, the degree of convergence has exceeded the diversion alert value (15%). It is foreseeable that all three films will face varying degrees of risk of being diverted, and over the years, the proportion of viewers who only watched 1 film during the Spring Festival program reached more than 80%, so how to become the audience's preferred film will be the biggest challenge for the main film.” Yin Tengyu said.

In addition to the three films mentioned above, the “Family Fun” animated film “Bears Hound: Reversing Time and Space”, produced by Chinese Film and Wanda Film (002739.SZ) and invested by Hengdian Film and Television, is regarded by many industry insiders as the “most stable” film for the Spring Festival. In addition, the warm healing style film “Let's Shake the Sun Together”, produced by Chinese films and invested by Hengdian Film and Television, also received good attention.

As to whether there will be new movies to “disrupt the game” in the future, Yin Tengyu believes that there are currently less than 20 days left until the release of the Spring Festival film. For a large-scale period like the Spring Festival program, the promotion cycle of less than 20 days is too tight. If the promotion is not in place before the screening, it will greatly affect the first-day schedule and box office, which in turn will affect the volume of word-of-mouth growth and overall box office performance. “Therefore, from a publicity perspective, the Spring Festival film pattern has basically been determined, and it is less likely that there will be any drastic changes in the future.”