人二倍体细胞狂犬病疫苗已获批上市，产品管线储备丰富。2023 年9月15 日公司公告其冻干人二倍体细胞狂犬病疫苗获批上市。目前公司拥有在研项目30 余项，重点推进水痘减毒活疫苗、脊髓灰质炎灭活疫苗、吸附无细胞百白破联合疫苗、吸附无细胞百白破灭活脊髓灰质炎和b 型流感嗜血杆菌联合疫苗等疫苗的药品注册工作和临床试验，未来伴随着重磅品种的不断兑现，公司有望实现长期可持续性发展。Core views:
The company released its third quarter report for 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 2,464 billion yuan (-3.92%, the following are year-on-year caliber), net profit of 697 million yuan (+243.13%), net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 599 million yuan (+316.82%), of which in the third quarter, the company achieved revenue of 734 million yuan (-0.45%), net profit to mother of 187 million yuan (+125.81%), and net profit without return to mother of 169 million yuan (+194.96%). The sharp increase in net profit over the same period last year was mainly due to the low base due to the impairment of COVID-19 vaccine-related assets and the costing of phase III clinical expenses during the same period last year.
PCV13 was approved for listing in Indonesia, and the internationalization process is progressing steadily. On October 26, 2023, the company announced that its PCV13 had obtained a “marketing license” issued by the Indonesian Food and Drug Administration, which had a positive impact on the company's international market expansion. The company adheres to “introduction” + “going global” and continues to promote the international development strategy. Since 2022, the company has successively signed cooperation agreements with partners in the Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, India and other countries to continue to expand the overseas layout of vaccine varieties such as 13-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine and 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine, and steadily advance the internationalization strategy.
The human diploid rabies vaccine has been approved for marketing, and the product pipeline is well-stocked. On September 15, 2023, the company announced that its freeze-dried human diploid rabies vaccine has been approved for marketing. Currently, the company has more than 30 research projects, focusing on promoting drug registration and clinical trials for vaccines such as the live attenuated chickenpox vaccine, the inactivated polio vaccine, the adsorbed acellular white deprivation vaccine, the adsorbed acellular leukemia inactivated polio vaccine, and the Haemophilus influenzae type b combination vaccine. In the future, along with the continuous implementation of major varieties, the company is expected to achieve long-term sustainable development.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. We expect the company's 2023-2025 EPS to be 0.90 yuan/share, 1.24 yuan/share, and 1.55 yuan/share respectively, giving the company 30 times PE in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value of 37.27 yuan/share, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Risk of product development failure; progress of products under development falling short of expectations; product sales and promotion falling short of expectations; risk of declining numbers of newborns; increased risk of market competition.
