The company released its 2023 performance forecast. Net profit for the whole year is expected to be +72% ~ 89% year-on-year, and net profit to mother +133% to 188% year-on-year for the 23Q4. Since the performance slightly exceeded expectations, we raised our profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2023-2024 is expected to be 313 million yuan and 368 million yuan, respectively, +80% and +18% year-on-year, corresponding to 23PE36.0X and 24PE30.6X, maintaining the “Highly Recommended” rating.
The company released the 2023 performance forecast, and the 23Q4 performance exceeded expectations. It is expected to achieve net profit of 3.0 to 330 million yuan in 2023, +72% to 89% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 220 million yuan to 250 million yuan, +62% to 84% year over year, and non-recurring profit and loss of about 80 million yuan. Among them, Single 23Q4 is expected to achieve net profit of 1.26 to 156 million yuan, +133% to 188% year over year; net profit without return to mother of 0.63 to 93 million yuan, +35% to 99% year over year. Non-recurring profit and loss are expected to be about 63.24 million yuan, and profit growth slightly exceeds expectations.
Emerging channels are growing rapidly, the strategy for large single products continues to be deepened, and the effect of reducing costs and increasing efficiency is obvious. Revenue is expected to grow by more than 30% for the full year of 2023. The main brand, Marumi, is expected to grow by more than 100% in content e-commerce represented by Douyin Kuaishou, and the second brand PL Love Fire will grow by more than 100%. The brand matrix is perfect and channel operation is effective. The big single product strategy centered on products such as Xiaohong Pen, Little Gold Needle, and the Invisible Series will continue, and the growth trend is expected to continue in 2024. At the same time, with the optimization of the product structure and firm cost reduction and efficiency, the company's profitability continues to improve.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's channel transformation has brought about rapid online growth, and the big single product strategy has been firmly promoted. Since the 2023 results slightly exceeded expectations, we raised our profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2023-2024 is expected to be 313 million yuan and 368 million yuan respectively, +80% and +18% year-on-year, corresponding to 23PE36.0X and 24PE30.6X, maintaining the “Highly Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: risk of consumer demand falling short of expectations, risk of new product promotion and sales falling short of expectations, risk of increased industry competition, risk of channel adjustments falling short of expectations.