Core views:
There was a decline in the single quarter due to a credit impairment of 1.46 billion yuan in stock quality. The company disclosed three quarterly reports, with revenue of 22.574 billion yuan for the first three quarters, +19.2% year on year, net profit to mother of 4.362 billion yuan, -28.2% year on year; Q3 single quarter revenue of 5.605 billion yuan, -18.0% year on year; and net profit to mother of 532 million yuan, or -59.6% year on year. The weighted average ROE was 2.62%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.08 pct.
The market improved year on year, and the company's own business rebounded significantly. Q3 Investment income+fair value change profit and loss of 345 million yuan, turning loss into profit year over year. Net revenue from proprietary business in the first three quarters was 4.11 billion yuan, +317% year over year; Haitong Securities ranked among the highest in the industry in terms of directional investment scale, which was greatly affected by market fluctuations. According to Wind, the balance of the two loans in the Q3 market was 1590.9 billion yuan, +3% year-on-year; due to the bond market, the company's net interest income declined. Net income in a single quarter was 1.1 billion yuan, compared to -34% in the same period last year, and net interest income for the first three quarters was 3.27 billion yuan, or -30.9% year-on-year.
Asset-light business performance is relatively sluggish. (1) The net revenue of the investment banking business in a single quarter was 1.06 billion yuan, -19.7% year-on-year, and the net revenue of the investment banking business in the first three quarters was 3.011 billion yuan, -19.9%; according to Wind's issuance date data, the total equity financing amount in the 23Q3 market was 276.1 billion yuan, -45% year over year. Haitong's equity underwriting still maintained its leading position. As of October 30, the company's 2023 IPO underwriting reached 21, ranking second. We believe that Haitong Securities Investment Bank will continue to give full play to its advantages of specialization, omnipotence and regionalization, and its market share will continue to increase. (2) The average daily turnover of the Q3 market in 2023 was 796.5 billion yuan, -13% year-on-year. The company's Q3 brokerage net revenue was 901 million yuan, -22% year over year, and net brokerage business revenue for the first three quarters was 2.87 billion yuan, -21% year over year.
(3) Asset management revenue declined. Q3 was 495 million yuan in a single quarter, -17.8% year-on-year, and net asset management revenue for the first three quarters was 1,427 billion yuan, -15.5% year-on-year.
Profit forecasting and investment advice: The company has accelerated its transformation and improved performance. The company's net profit for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 70.5, 90.9, and 10.1 billion yuan. Combined with the historical valuation center of the past 3 years, 0.67-1.26XPB, the company was given a valuation of 1XPB for A shares in 2023, corresponding to a reasonable value of 12.53 yuan/share. Considering the A/H share premium, corresponding to the reasonable value of H shares of HK$5.72 per share in 2023, they were all given a “buy” rating. (HKD/CNY=0.94)
Risk warning: Revenue structure fluctuates greatly, market sluggish volume declines, policy risks, etc.