Incident: The company issued a positive profit warning for 2023. As of December 31, 2023, the Group's total annual revenue is expected to reach RMB 2.01 billion, an increase of 164% over 2022. Cash repayments are expected to exceed RMB 1.4 billion. The company achieved annual gross profit of RMB 1.84 billion, and profit after tax in the first year.
Chang Weiqing, the core product, continues to grow rapidly, and the share of public channels has increased rapidly. In 2023, the company's Changweiqing series products are expected to achieve revenue of 1,193 billion yuan, an increase of 235% over the previous year. It is expected to achieve revenue recognition volume of 1.0408 million copies, an increase of 188% over the previous year, and an estimated gross profit of 1,095 billion yuan, an increase of 269% over the previous year. By the end of 2023, Chang Weiqing's market penetration rate will reach 1.7%. Chang Weiqing's business revenue has risen rapidly, mainly due to the excellent performance of the three major channels of hospitals, consumer medicine, and private medical examinations. Among them, hospital channel sales accounted for 54% of Changweiqing's total revenue. At the same time, the average testing price of all sales channels increased in 2023, driving the company's single-test revenue to continue to grow. At present, the company's sales, marketing, operation and R&D management systems in the colorectal cancer early screening market have all entered steady development, which is enough to effectively support vertical and horizontal commercial expansion. At the same time, Chang Weiqing's entry and volume in public hospitals have accelerated markedly, laying the foundation for Chang Weiqing's market penetration target of 5% in 2025.
Market education has accelerated the promotion of multi-channel marketing, and Pu Tube and Youyou Tube have all ushered in super-guided growth. In 2023, the company's Youyoutube products are expected to achieve operating income of 463 million yuan, an increase of 123% over the previous year, and are expected to achieve sales volume of 6.237 million copies, an increase of 76% over the previous year, and an estimated gross profit of 437 million yuan, an increase of 132% over the previous year. Thanks to the rapid popularization of effective market education on Helicobacter pylori prevention in China and the gradual development of target users' self-testing habits, the company's Youyoutube products have achieved impressive results; in 2023, the company's Youyoutube products are expected to achieve excellent results; in 2023, it is expected to achieve operating revenue of 356 million yuan, an increase of 78% over the previous year. 10.1876 million copies, an increase of 28% over the previous year, and is expected to contribute 314 million yuan in gross profit, an increase of 91% over the previous year. Poptube products achieved performance exceeding the annual guidelines, mainly due to the steady contribution of consumer medical channels and medical examination centers.
The return of funds continues to accelerate, and the age of accounts receivable is getting healthier. According to the company's announcement, in 2023, the company expects total cash repayments of 1.42 billion yuan, of which accounts receivable repayment is about 1.18 billion yuan, and the advance payment balance is about 240 million yuan; by the end of 2023, the company's accounts receivable balance is about 1,468 million yuan, of which more than 70% comes from revenue in the past 6 months, and accounts receivable that are less than 90 days old is about 452 million yuan, accounting for about 31% of the company's receivables. The company continued to strengthen accounts receivable management, and the return of funds was significantly accelerated during the reporting period. We expect the repayment amount to continue to increase rapidly in 2024, promoting continuous optimization of the quality of the company's statements and achieving healthy and sustainable growth.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: According to the performance forecast, we have adjusted the profit forecast. It is expected that as the company's three major product revenue will maintain rapid growth, and with the increasing development of internal and external markets and the continuous advancement of multiple R&D pipelines, the company is expected to achieve operating income of 20.13, 32.29, and 4.330 billion yuan in 2023-2025 (17.43, 28.10, 4,058 billion yuan before adjustments), with a year-on-year increase of 163%, 60%, and 34%. It is expected that 2023-2025 will achieve 2.18 billion yuan in net profit to mother. RMB 3.60 and 547 million (RMB 2.27, 4.45, and 797 million yuan before adjustments), a year-on-year increase of 65% and 52% in 2024 and 2025. Consider that the company is a leading listed company for early cancer screening in China. It has large market space, a good competitive pattern, fast performance growth, good scarcity, and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning events: R&D progress falls short of expectations, policy changes, potential competitors, risk that information may be delayed or not updated in a timely manner using public data in research reports.