Finance Association, January 23 (Editor Liu Rui) According to media statistics, the total market value of the Indian stock market surpassed the Hong Kong stock market for the first time this Monday, becoming the fourth largest stock market in the world.

According to the data, as of Monday's close, the total value of shares listed on the Indian Exchange reached US$4.33 trillion, while the market value of shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was US$4.29 trillion. This means that the Indian stock market surpassed Hong Kong to become the fourth largest stock market in the world.

However, Wall Street institutions such as UBS and Bernstein believe that the Indian stock market is already at a high level, while the Chinese stock market is expected to recover this year, which means that the Hong Kong stock market is hopeful to regain its position as the fourth largest stock market in the world this year.

The Indian stock market has continued to rise in recent years

The Indian stock market has been booming in recent years due to the rapid increase in retail investors in India and the strong profit performance of Indian companies. On December 5 of last year, India's stock market capitalization surpassed 4 trillion US dollars for the first time, about half of which was achieved in the past four years.

India's growth prospects and policy reforms have made it a favorite of global investors. The world's most populous country positions itself as the “next China,” hoping to replicate China's rapid economic take-off path.

Ashish Gupta (Ashish Gupta), the chief investment officer of Axis Mutual Fund in Mumbai, said: “India has all the right elements to further drive the growth momentum.”

Overseas capital invested more than $21 billion in the Indian stock market in 2023, helping the country's benchmark S&P BSE Sensex Index rise for the eighth year in a row.

Goldman Sachs Group strategists Guillaume Jaisson (Guillaume Jaisson) and Peter Oppenheimer (Peter Oppenheimer) wrote in last week's report: “People clearly agree that India is the best long-term investment opportunity.”

Hong Kong stocks are expected to overtake this year

While the Indian stock market continues to rise, the Hong Kong stock market has recently continued to decline. Multiple factors such as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the real estate crisis, and geopolitical risks have weakened the appeal of the Hong Kong stock market to investors.

Meanwhile, with the general trend weakening, the issuance of new shares in Hong Kong has decelerated markedly, and it is no longer the largest IPO market in the world. In 2023, the number of IPOs listed in the Hong Kong stock market and the total amount of capital raised were 73 and HK$46.29 billion, respectively, down 9.6% and 53.5% from the same period last year, hitting a new low in ten years, falling out of the top three global IPO financing markets.

However, some Wall Street strategists predict that Hong Kong stocks may overtake India this year and regain their position as the fourth largest stock market in the world.

UBS Group analysts expect the Chinese stock market (A shares and Hong Kong stocks) to perform better than the Indian stock market in 2024, because according to a report from November last year, the valuation of the Chinese stock market is already quite low. This shows that once market sentiment changes, the Chinese stock market has huge potential to rise, while the valuation of the Indian stock market is already at a “quite extreme level.”

Bernstein's report released earlier this month also showed that the company expects the Chinese stock market to recover and suggests a profitable settlement for the Indian stock market. The company also believes that the Indian stock market is currently too expensive.