occurrences

Recently, the company released its 2023 performance forecast. During the reporting period, net profit attributable to mother was approximately RMB 23.859 billion, a decrease of about 78.25% compared with the same period last year.

reviews

The red sea border situation has recently been tense, and a number of international shipping companies have announced detour plans. Based on distance estimates, detours increased by an average of 14 days. For companies with regular liners, capacity increased by about 30% at once. The CCFI index has been rising for 2 consecutive weeks due to longer travel distances. As of the date of writing this report, the January average was 1213, which clearly exceeded the Q4 average of 854.

According to public data from the shipping network, new container ship orders in '23 were 60% of the same period in '22.

Container ships are expected to maintain a high completion and delivery rate in '24, while global transportation demand is growing slowly. This move will have a depressing effect on shipping prices in '24.

Investment ratings

It is expected that in the next few years, the global container shipping industry will still face many challenges such as weakening transportation demand, rising capacity supply, and geographical tension. We believe that the company has excellent collaborative scheduling capabilities for shipping routes and terminal handling, superimposes the company's dividend policy, and continues to maintain the “gain” rating.

Risk warning

The decline in global economic and trade activity exceeded expectations, and the recovery of China's foreign trade fell short of expectations.