Incident: On January 19, 2023, the company released the 2023 annual performance forecast. The performance forecast shows that in 2023, the company achieved net profit of 1,476 million yuan, an increase of 61.26% over the previous year, realized net profit of 995 million yuan without deducted return to mother, and a loss of 230 million yuan in the same period last year.
The increase in vehicle sales is compounded by cost reduction and efficiency, helping the company's performance to grow. In 2023, the company sold 310,000 vehicles, including 80,200 light buses, 62,800 trucks, 59,700 pickup trucks, and 107,300 SUVs. Total sales increased 9.93% over the same period last year, helping to increase revenue. In 2023, the company's net profit to mother rose 61.26% year on year. The sharp increase in net profit to mother was mainly due to increased sales volume, increased gross profit brought about by cost reduction and efficiency measures such as continuous design optimization and process improvements, and increased profit due to changes in profit and loss of minority shareholders.
The company is positioned as a light commercial vehicle leader and Ford's high-performance product provider, and the product matrix continues to improve the export boom: Jiangling Light Bus has a comprehensive insight into customer needs and operating scenarios, and launches a light passenger product portfolio with excellent quality, excellent performance and high cost performance to achieve full coverage of freight, passenger transportation and modification scenarios. Jiangling Light Truck launched the new Kaiyun+, and Jiangling Pickup launched the new brand “Jiangling Avenue”, positioning itself as a “full-scene expert for Chinese pickups”, covering high-end commercial passenger and off-road passenger pickups worth 100,000 yuan or more, completing the product matrix layout with full price range in the pickup truck market. Jiangling Ford Passenger Vehicle continues to strengthen its differentiated customer experience, channel expansion, and brand communication. In the first half of 2023, among industry segments, Jiangling's light passenger products market steadily ranked first in share, pickup truck products ranked second in the industry, light truck products ranked sixth in the industry, and export sales soared by leaps and bounds and doubled year-on-year growth.
Jiangling Ford Ranger and Bronco went public, continuing to contribute to profit growth: On November 17, 2023, Ford's next-generation pickup Ranger was unveiled at the 2023 Guangzhou Auto Show. The new car is positioned as an off-road mid-size pickup truck. The new car is named “Ranger” and is produced by Jiangling Ford. In addition, the Jiangling Ford Bronco will be officially released in the spring of 2024 and will go on sale at the same time. The Jiangling Ford Bronco has now been declared by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. It is estimated that the starting price of the domestic version of the Bronco will be around 400,000 yuan, which has a price advantage compared to the Wrangler. With Ranger and Bronco going public one after another, it is expected to continue to contribute to the company's profit growth.
Profit forecast: The company is expected to achieve revenue of 328.5, 458.86, and 53,514 billion yuan in 2023-2025, and net profit to mother in 2023-2025 is 1,476, 18.01, and 2,276 billion yuan. The corresponding PE is 12.18, 9.98, and 7.90 times, respectively, giving it a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Competition in the passenger car industry intensifies, sales fall short of expectations; commercial vehicle sales fall short of expectations; new product launch progress falls short of expectations, etc.