核心逻辑：（1）格局端：立足非制冷红外，积极布局激光、微波射频芯片&模组等，逐步成长为半导体传感龙头企业；（2）营收端：装备领域，低成本化趋势下非制冷红外的应用前景广阔；海外市场稳步拓展，户外产品景气度有望持续；国内安消防、工业测温业务与无人机等领域大客户合作良好，并布局车载中长期成长曲线；公司微波射频等新产品有望自研发投入期步入放量兑现期，重视公司在卫星互联网等领域的布局。Core views:
Incident: The company announced a pre-increase in its 2023 annual results. It is estimated to achieve net profit of 500 million yuan (YOY +59.55%) and net profit without deduction to mother of 420 million yuan (YOY +68.59%).
Comment: Semiconductor sensing leaders focus on R&D, continuous optimization of category layout, and performance is expected to increase dramatically. According to the company's performance pre-increase announcement, it is expected to achieve net profit of 500 million yuan (YOY +59.55%). During the reporting period, the company continued to increase R&D investment and new product development efforts, actively explore markets, expand sales, and maintain sufficient orders, and achieved a significant increase in operating income over the same period of the previous year. The estimated impact of non-recurring profit and loss on the company's net profit was about 79 million yuan, mainly other income from government subsidies received by the company. The company's non-recurring profit and loss in 20-22 was 0.76 billion yuan (Wind data). Furthermore, according to the company's official account on January 15, on January 11, academicians from both academicians selected the “2023 China/World Top Ten Science and Technology Progress News” press conference, and the company ranked first in the “2023 Shandong Top Ten Science and Technology Innovation Achievements” list. The 8-micron uncooled infrared thermal imaging module was the first in the world, filling the gap in the world. The company's core technology is leading, the product structure is continuously optimized, and profit growth points are constantly being enriched.
Core logic: (1) The pattern side: based on uncooled infrared, actively lays out lasers, microwave RF chips & modules, etc., and gradually grows into a leading semiconductor sensing enterprise; (2) revenue side: equipment sector, the application prospects of unrefrigerated infrared are broad under the trend of low cost; overseas markets are expanding steadily, and the boom in outdoor products is expected to continue; domestic security, industrial temperature measurement business and large customers in the fields of drones cooperate well, and lay out a medium- to long-term growth curve; the company is expected to invest in new products such as microwave and radio frequency. During the cash out period, emphasis is placed on the company's layout in fields such as satellite internet.
Profit forecast and investment advice: EPS is expected to be 1.12/1.68/2.54 yuan/share in 23-25. Considering the company's leading position in sensing, continued construction of semiconductor-related capabilities, and comparable company valuations, it will be given 33 times PE over 24 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 55.42 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: low expectations for new product expansion, low expectations for equipment demand and delivery, policy adjustments, etc.
