23Q4 revenue increased year over year. The company expects to achieve revenue of 4.394 billion yuan in 2023, +19.50% year over year, net profit of 1,080 to 1,167 billion yuan, +1.01%-9.15% year over year, and is expected to achieve net profit of 10.67 to 1,150 billion yuan after deducting non-recurring profit and loss, or +0.16% to 7.95% year over year. Looking at a single quarter, Q4 is expected to achieve revenue of 1,320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99.73%, and -6.27% month-on-month. It is expected to achieve net profit of 349-262 million yuan, or +179.52%-272.32% year-on-year. Although demand in the 23H1 smartphone market is weak, 23H2 has benefited from the transmission of holiday consumption incentives and the gradual optimization of customer inventory structures, and downstream customer demand has increased. The company focuses on self-built filter production lines. On the basis of promoting orderly large-scale mass production, the company accelerates the iterative upgrading of products, responds to the diverse needs of customers, and continuously deepens the market coverage of RF filter module products.
Modules such as L-diFem have been mass-produced, and MAX-SAW has a competitive advantage. According to the 2023 semi-annual report and investor research records, the company's self-built production line is progressing smoothly. Among them, products such as integrated self-produced high-performance filter modules such as DiFem, L-DiFem, and GPS modules have been gradually released on the client; in addition, its own brand MAX-SAW is a high-end SAW filter that uses POI substrates and has characteristics such as high frequency applications and high performance. Applications below sub-3GHz can reach the level of BAW and FBAR, which has a competitive advantage. The company is the first in the mainland to mass-produce high-end SAW The manufacturer of the filter. Furthermore, the highly integrated 4G transmitter module LPAMid is under development and is expected to further open up room for growth after launch.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's EPS for 23-25 is estimated to be 2.09, 3.19, and 4.08 yuan/share, respectively. Referring to the company's long-term growth and strategic layout, the view of a reasonable value of 166.34 yuan/share remains unchanged, and the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk warning. Industry prosperity fell short of expectations; industry competition was fierce; gross margin fell short of expectations; progress of new products fell short of expectations.