The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guohai Securities released a research report saying that the recovery in demand in the semiconductor industry is compounded by the continued expansion of production in mainland China, and the domestic semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow steadily in the long term. Quality control runs through the entire wafer manufacturing process and is a key guarantee for chip production yield. Advanced manufacturing processes will place higher demands on the level of process control, and the value of measurement and testing equipment is expected to double. It is estimated that in 2023/2024/2025/2025/2026, the global semiconductor quantity testing equipment market space was US$105/120/138/14.5 billion, respectively, with a CAGR of 11.5%. The market space for semiconductor quantity testing equipment in mainland China was US$35/41/48/5.1 billion, respectively, and the CAGR reached 12.8%.

▍ The main views of Guohai Securities are as follows:

The semiconductor measurement equipment market space is broad

The domestic semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow steadily over the long term due to the recovery in demand in the semiconductor industry and the continuous expansion of production by mainland Chinese fabs. Quality control runs through the entire wafer manufacturing process and is a key guarantee for chip production yield. Advanced manufacturing processes will place higher demands on the level of process control, and the value of measurement and testing equipment is expected to double. It is estimated that in 2023/2024/2025/2025/2026, the global semiconductor quantity testing equipment market space was US$105/120/138/14.5 billion, respectively, with a CAGR of 11.5%. The market space for semiconductor quantity testing equipment in mainland China was US$35/41/48/5.1 billion, respectively, and the CAGR reached 12.8%.

Multi-system combination is expected to become the direction of inspection technology

It is estimated that in 2022, the global market share of optical/electron beam/X-ray inspection equipment will be 74.2%/19.7%/2.2%, respectively. The optical inspection speed is fast and contactless, but the detection sensitivity of advanced nodes is limited; the electron beam detection accuracy is high, but the rate is slow and the equipment cost is high; as the complexity of chip materials and structures continues to increase, multi-system combinations are expected to become the direction of inspection technology.

Domestic replacement of measurement and testing equipment is accelerating in recent years

According to VLSIResearch and QYResearch, the CR5 of the global semiconductor measurement equipment industry reached 82% in 2020, and KLA went through many mergers and acquisitions, and the global market share of KLA measurement equipment reached 51% in 2020; ASML equipped measurement equipment with EUV systems, and electron beam testing equipment had a significant competitive advantage. According to theinformationnetwork, the global market share of ASLM electron beam testing equipment reached 50% in 2022.

Currently, the localization rate of measurement and testing equipment is low. Major local suppliers include Shanghai Precision Measurement, Zhongke Flying Measurement, and Ruili Instruments. The total domestic market share of the three companies in 2018-2022 was 0.67%/0.60%/2.11%/2.38%/3.17%. Under the influence of geographical factors, domestic replacement of measurement and testing equipment is accelerating.

Follow the new product breakthroughs and order progress of local equipment vendors

There is plenty of space for semiconductor measurement equipment, and domestic replacement is being accelerated. It is recommended to focus on Precision Measurement Electronics (300567.SZ), Zhongke Flying Test (688361.SH), Zhongwei (688012.SH), Saiteng Co., Ltd. (603283.SH), and Tianzhun Technology (). 688003.SH

1) Precision Measurement Electronics: Based on the main panel inspection business, semiconductor products continue to be improved, and brightfield testing equipment is leading; 2) Zhongke Flying Test: focusing on measurement equipment in the past ten years, accelerating research and development of equipment such as nanographic wafer defect detection and key size measurement; 3) Zhongwei Company: increasing capital several times, and measurement revenue continues to grow; 4) Saiten shares: acquires Japan's Optima to lay out wafer inspection equipment; 5) Tianzhun Technology: Accelerating the layout of the semiconductor field, the first brightfield inspection equipment has been delivered to customers for trial use. The first coverage gave the semiconductor front-end testing equipment industry a “recommended” rating.

Risk warning:

The recovery in the semiconductor industry's boom fell short of expectations; domestic replacement of semiconductor equipment fell short of expectations; industry competition increased risk; risk of deviations in market space estimates; focus on the company's performance falling short of expectations; public data used in research reports may be at risk that information is lagging behind or not being updated in a timely manner.