Incident: The company released a performance forecast. It is expected to achieve net profit of 28%-320 million yuan in 23, an increase of 124%-156% over the previous year, and net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 2.6-30 billion yuan, an increase of 169%-210% over the previous year. The impact of non-recurring profit and loss on current net profit for 23 years is estimated to be about 20 million yuan.
The significant increase in the company's 23-year performance is mainly due to the following: (1) The multi-level brand matrix system for independent brands has been further improved, brand assets have continued to accumulate, the agency brand business has entered a healthy track, the overall business and product structure have been further optimized, and the share of high-margin brands has continued to rise. At the same time, the company continues to pay attention to changes in the market environment, dynamically optimizes sales models, and increases overall gross profit. (2) On the premise of focusing on long-term healthy business development, we insist on refined operation, continuously improve management efficiency, continuously improve organizational system construction, improve cost control effectiveness, and reduce cost ratio.
Ifidan made efforts in various aspects such as products, channels, and marketing, and achieved outstanding results. According to Ifidan's official WeChat account, the first Ifidan counter in China was unveiled at Wulin Yintai in Hangzhou on September 28, 23. Products such as Star Zhenmei Series, Sakura Anti-Sugar Series, and Shine Regeneration Series were all unveiled; Yang Zi, the first spokesperson for Super Mask, was officially announced on October 16, '23, further expanding the brand's volume. According to Magic Mirror and Mama Cicada, in '23, the Ifidan Ali platform achieved sales of 220 million yuan, an increase of 50.4% year on year, and the Douyin platform achieved sales of 410 million yuan, an increase of 136.6% year on year. Ali+ Douyin achieved total sales of 640 million yuan, an increase of 96.8% year on year, showing impressive performance.
Profit forecast and investment advice: The company adheres to the strategy of “technology-enabled products, digitally empowered organizations, and dual business-driven by its own brand and agency brand”. Brands such as Ifidan and Daishui DiDi have good development trends and contributed more results. The company's net profit for 23-25 is estimated to be 2.9, 4.0, and 50 billion yuan, maintaining the view that a reasonable value of 23.15 yuan/share remains unchanged, corresponding to 23 times PE in 24, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Industry sentiment is declining; e-commerce growth is slowing down; new product expansion falls short of expectations.