Summary content
The gypsum board industry is highly concentrated, and products are shifting from industrial products to consumer goods; as a leading global gypsum board company, the company is accelerating the transformation of a consumer building materials manufacturing service provider through the “gypsum board +” chain repair core business. The company is the world's largest gypsum board and light steel keel industry group. The effective production capacity of gypsum board is 3.388 billion square meters. Sales in 2022 account for 68.17% of the industry, ranking first in market share all year round. When targeting overseas markets, the gypsum board industry is showing an oligopoly trend; as the penetration rate of gypsum board increases in residential scenarios and partition applications, the industry still has a lot of room for growth, and demand for gypsum board is expected to reach 3.4/43 billion square meters in 2025/2030, respectively. At the same time, the company has accelerated its transformation into a manufacturing service provider, leveraging its advantages in high-quality manufacturing, management and operation; expanding rich new “gypsum board+” business categories, strengthening the core business chain, and driving rapid growth in multiple categories.
Implement the ESG investment concept and move towards a green and low-carbon future. The company strengthened ESG system construction, continued to publish ESG and social responsibility reports, and invested 297 million yuan to carry out the operation and transformation of advanced energy saving and environmental protection equipment and facilities to actively promote carbon reduction, carbon sequestration, and carbon management measures; Taishan Gypsum strengthened the comprehensive utilization of resources to achieve a carbon quota surplus.
The company's 2022 ESG rating result was AA-, ranking 2.2% in the industry.
The “two wings” of the waterproofing and coating business are working together to take off again in collaboration with the main business. The company's waterproof business has reached an inflection point, and the scale and profit level continue to match that of leading companies in the waterproof industry; the paint business currently holds 100% of the lighthouse and plans to acquire Garberry in cash. After the integration is completed, the architectural coatings business will rise to a leading position in the domestic industry.
Release a restricted stock incentive plan. The company announced a restricted stock incentive plan on December 29, 2023. It plans to grant no more than 12.9 million restricted shares to no more than 347 people, accounting for about 0.764% of the total share capital when the draft incentive plan was announced. The grant price was 13.96 yuan/share.
Investment advice: We expect the company to achieve net profit of 36.82/43.45/5,041 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, corresponding EPS of 2.18/2.57/2.98 yuan/share, respectively. The company was given a target PE of 14 times in 2024, corresponding to a target share price of 35.98 yuan. First coverage, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The real estate industry and downstream demand fell short of expectations; the speed and intensity of policy implementation fell short of expectations; the increase in raw material prices exceeded expectations; and the expansion of the paint business fell short of expectations.